THE STARS OF THE FARM SHOW: DISEASE-RESISTANT VARIETIES

A bunch of new to fairly-new flue-cured varieties are on the market, and many could help farmers in the battle to beat declining yields. At the Southern Farm Show, Paul Sodoma (right) of GoldLeaf Seeds told Adam Mitchell of Surry County, N.C., about GoldLeaf’s new variety GL 365.

A strong market for seed: Seed companies may have had the best experience among exhibitors at the show. It was if farmers still weren’t sure of what equipment they will need to grow this crop, but they were sure of what seed they wanted to plant. Among the comments from companies:

• Sam Baker of Cross Creek Seed said he approached the show with apprehension that farmers would be so pessimistic about this crop because of the increased cost of inputs that they would be reluctant to maintain their plantings. “But our farmers seem to be buying roughly the same amount of seed as last year,” he said. “Right now, we might be looking at flat acreage for 2023.” Cross Creek has a strong variety in CC 145. “It has good black shank and Granville wilt resistance and good yield and quality.”
• Kimberly Foley said the farmers who visited the Foley Seed and Service exhibit showed a lot of optimism and were indeed quite cheerful about the upcoming crop. Foley’s new PVH 1920 variety might almost have been too much of a draw—supplies had sold out by the end of the first day of the show. But more is coming in before the end of the sowing season. PVH 1920, which was developed in partnership with Profigen, features very good resistance to Granville wilt and medium resistance to black shank. “We believe has a place all over the flue-cured-growing area but it will be best suited to the Eastern Belt of North Carolina,” said Foley.
• GoldLeaf Seeds had a hot new variety of its own on display at the show. “GL 365 could be the ‘latest and greatest’ of the high-black-shank-resistant varieties currently coming on the market,” says Marion Hawkins III, president of GoldLeaf. “GL 365 is the second highest black shank resistance variety based on a three-year average in the North Carolina Official Variety Test with a 94% survival rate.”

In other news from the show, the Tobacco Growers Association of North Carolina held an economic panel discussion that covered the outlook in 2023 for the major tobacco types as part of its annual meeting:

FLUE-CURED

What’s causing flue-cured yields to slide? Jonathan Renn, Surry County, N.C., farmer and president of the Tobacco Growers Association of N.C., told the association’s annual meeting that he identifies seven factors in the downward trend in N.C. flue-cured yield. They are:

• Target spot--It is becoming quite prolific and can wreck yields by as much as 400 pounds per acre.
• Extended harvesting--We leave the crop in the field longer so that it is overripe at harvest, depleting yield.
• Dry leaf systems--By passing the cured leaf through tumblers and picking lines to remove NTRM, as much as 200 pounds per acre of such waste can be reduced. It used to be delivered to auction.
• Cultivation Practices--Many farmers have reduced nitrogen levels to achieve a particular type of finished cure. N makes weight, so we can expect some yield reduction. In addition, less MH is being applied, and that too has an effect on tonnage.
• Weather--This factor is beyond our control. But certainly weather accounts for 10% or greater in crop impact on a typical season and when we experienced major weather events it can be much greater. For example, we recorded Hurricane Ian in 2022 as well as early October frost. Weather easily diminished the crop by 20 million pounds.



BURLEY

The quality of 2022 burley in the U.S. turned out slightly better than expected, according to buyers, "but it was still sub-par,” says Will Snell, Kentucky Extension ag economist. “Prices will end up higher, but profitability will be lower given lower yields and inflated input prices.”

Adequate supplies of burley have been accessible to tobacco companies in recent years. That is in part because of a shrinking market composed of ample lower-priced leaf alternatives and the introduction of many new “nicotine” products that contain limited or no tobacco leaf.

But burley supplies in the world market are extremely tight relative to anticipated demand, Snell says. “So I would anticipate that burley buyers will be offering the remaining growers an opportunity to increase their burley pounds in 2023 to accommodate tight inventories.” This could happen even as the decline in domestic cigarette volume accelerates and burley leaf exports plummet to negligible levels.

Contract pricing for 2023 burley will be crucial for production. “Frankly, without significant price increases across the board for the 2023 crop, I would expect a continued rapid exit of burley growers,” says Snell. 

A continued attrition among growers is likely this year. The last official count from the 2017 Ag Census indicated that around 2,600 farms were growing tobacco in Kentucky in 2017. “I would anticipate this number will hover around 1,000 farms when the 2022 Census data becomes available,” he says. “Less than 1,000 farms will likely remain in the industry in 2023.”

DARK & WRAPPER

The outlook for dark has changed abruptly, and not for the better, says Snell. Smokeless tobacco product sale volumes continue to grow, but after many years of good sales, traditional snuff product sales have been significantly affected by the rapid expansion of alternative smokeless products…which do not contain dark tobacco leaf.

Consequently, contract volumes for dark fire-cured for 2023 may be lowered to as manufacturers adjust inventory levels. “[This] may cause growers to consider cigar-style tobaccos as a viable substitute,” says Snell.

ASSOCIATION HONORS



Awards for 2023: TGANC conferred a number of awards again this year. They were: Outstanding Director—David Hinnant, Wilson County. Farm Family of the Year—Stuart Pierce Farms, Hertford County. North Carolina Lifetime Century Member—Rick Smith, Wilson, Distinguished Service Award—David Zimmerman, President, Southern Farm Show. Extension Service Award—Ramsey Lewis, NCSU tobacco breeder.

Watch for more reporting on the Southern Farm Show in the next issue of Tobacco Farmer Newsletter.

DATES TO REMEMBER

GAP TRAINING MEETINGS, FEBRUARY AND MARCH

For more information, call GAP at 865.622.4606 or contact your local Extension office. All meetings are in English. No charge.

o Thu Feb 9, 9 is EST, Yadkinville, N.C.

o Thu Feb 9, 6 pm CST, Cadiz, KY.

o Mon Feb 13, 4:30 pm CST, Franklin, KY.

o Tue Feb 14, 2 pm CST, Mayfield, KY.

o Tue Feb 14, 5 pm EST, Abingdon, VA.

o Tue Feb 21, 10 am CST, Hartsville, TN.

o Wed Feb 22, 10 am CST, Hopkinsville, KY.

o Thu Feb 23, 10 am EST, Mt Sterling, KY.

o Mon Feb 27, 6 pm EST, Madison, IN.

o Tue Feb 28, 9 am EST, Shelbyville, KY.

o Tue Feb 28, 6 pm EST, Cynthiana, KY.

o Wed Mar 1, 9 am EST, Seaman, OH.

o Wed Mar 1, 6 pm EST, Maysville, KY.

o Thu Mar 2, 6 pm EST, Lancaster, KY.

o Fri Mar 3, 10 am CST, Hardinsburg, KY.

o Tue Mar 7, 1 pm CST, Russellville, KY.

o Mon Mar 13, 6 pm CST, Glasgow, KY.

o Tue Mar 14, 9 am CST, Murray, KY.

o Tue Mar 14, 6 pm CST, Lafayette, TN.

o Tue Mar 21, 9 am EST, Quarryville, PA.

o Wed Mar 22, 9 am EST, New Holland, PA.