Tobacco Farmer Newsletter

In Malawi, buyers inspect burley tobacco on the Lilongwe auction floor.

Flue-cured: The 2018 Brazil flue-cured crop--which is currently in the field--has been projected at a volume of just under 1.3 billion pounds. That is slightly lower than the 1.37 billion pounds reported for the crop harvested earlier this year, says Blake Brown, N.C. Extension economist. Both crops are/were well above the recent low of 1.01 billion pounds in 2016. The 2017 Zimbabwe crop -- for which marketing ended recently--is estimated to have been 403 million pounds, down from

442 million pounds in 2016. The 2017 average price per pound in Zimbabwe is expected to have been about $1.34 per pound, which is about the same as in 2016. "A stronger Brazi-lian Real and a larger (US) 2017 crop should lead to higher exports for the 2017 crop," he says.

Burley: In Malawi, our strong competitor in burley, international buyers have asked for production of about 375 million kilograms from the 2017/18 crop, according the national Tobacco Control Commission. This is a 10 percent increase from the 2016/17 volume. But that may not be as significant as it sounds: Production fell well short of demand in the season just ended with only 240 million kilograms coming to market against the stated demand of 350 million kilograms. The commission's Chief Executive Officer, David Luka, said, "This 10 percent increase in demand could be a result of the undersupply of tobacco the market experienced in the just-ended season."

The dark types had better luck in harvesting on schedule than flue-cured and burley, but still, some was cut late. In Trigg County, Ky., some fire-cured was

still being cut the first week of November. That is risky, says Andy Bailey, Ex-tension dark tobacco specialist. "We usually don't do well with fire-cured that is cut after November 1. There is less chance of good curing weather after that." The rainfall was favorable for most of the dark-producing area in the fall, although there were some heavy rains associated with Hurri-cane Irma, especially around Springfield, Tn., causing some damage.

Bailey's rough estimate of dark production?Maybe 56 to 57 million pounds of fire-cured and 16 to 18 million pounds of dark air-cured. Both estimates are one to two million pounds less than USDA's last Crop Report. Yield might be 3,200 pounds per acre for fire-cured and 2,800 pounds per acre for dark air-cured, he adds. Both are close to average. "What I have seen is pretty good," says Bailey. "It is a hundred times better than last year" when bad weather seriously reduced yields.

If any tobacco is still left in the field in North Carolina, it probably will stay there. "Jack Frost got his due over the weekend [November 11 and 12], and I wouldn't think there would be much useable leaf after that," says Matthew Vann, N.C. Extension

tobacco specialist. "Most of our growers were finished by October 20, but there was an area north of Oxford, N.C., on up to the Virginia state line where the crop was behind. There was a mad dash to finish and some had to harvest much later than normal."

This flue-cured season will be remembered for its early disease outbreaks, especi-ally tomato spotted wilt virus, says Vann. "It was the worst I have ever observed. We even saw some very mild cases in the Middle Belt, which is unheard of. We (the N.C. Extension tobacco team) are working on management strategies to deal with the disease." Breeding might eventually help--at the present time, no varietal resistance is available.

Welcome to the November II issue of Tobacco Farmer Newsletter. If you haven't signed on to receive the newsletter regularly or need to change an address, please click on "Join our mailing list" and follow the prompts. For more information, you can call me at 919-789-4631 or email me at chrisbickers@gmail.com. --Chris Bickers

A Letter to the Editor

PRICE RELIEF MORE NEEDED NOW THAN PRODUCTION INCREASES

We spend so much time talking about production. But the most pressing issues we face now are the price we receive for our tobacco and the wage that we pay H2A workers. I have made 38 tobacco crops in my life time, and I have never seen the situation this bad financially, even in the days when we were paying 25 cents into the no net cost program. I have been working H2A workers since 1985. The wage then was $3.95. It has increased over the years, but in the last 10 years, it has gotten out of hand. Growers are reluctant to admit it, but their workers are making more money than they are. I am a member of Virginia Agricultural Growers Association and am currently its treasurer. In 2017 we brought in 1,600 workers to Virginia growers. Less than 10 years ago we were bringing in over 3,000. You can see the trend: More acres, less farmers. If we continue down this path of reduced price and increased wage and production cost, tobacco production will soon die here in Virginia. We are all afraid of upsetting the tobacco companies and losing our contracts, but someone must speak. I pray that our leadership will be more vocal to the companies about this wage issue. If the Adverse wage continues to increase without an increase in price (which is unlikely), all of this will be a moot point. Tobacco farmers are at the bottom of the food chain and everyone else is feeding off us!--Tom Blair, Pittsylvania County, Va.

DATES TO REMEMBER

December 7, 8 a.m. N.C. Tobacco Day 2017. Johnston County Extension Center, 2736 N.C. Hwy. 210, Smithfield, N.C. Meeting ends with lunch.
January 17-18, 10 a.m. S.C. AgriBiz and Farm Expo Florence (S.C.) Civic Center at the junction of I-95 and I-20.
January 31-February 2, 9 a.m. Southern Farm Show. N.C. State Fair Grounds, Raleigh, N.C.
February 2, 10 a.m. Annual Meeting, Tobacco Growers Association of N.C., Holshouser Building, N.C. State Fair Grounds (during Southern FarmShow). Meeting ends with lunch.

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Burley curing in an outdoor structure at the Highland Rim research station near Springfield, Tn. (File photo)

The global supply/demand balance for burley improved entering 2017 following three years of excess supplies and dwindling demand, says Will Snell, Kentucky Extension tobacco economist. "Demand conditions for U.S. burley remain soft in the international market." U.S. burley exports fell 24 percent in 2016 and are down more than 15 percent so far in 2017, he says "Alternatively, imports of burley tobacco into the U.S. market have continued to gain market share, comprising one-half to two-thirds of all burley used by U.S. cigarette manufacturers in recent years." Domestic cigarette sales are expected to fall three to four percent in 2017, matching the historical annual decline of nearly 30 percent over the past decade, he says.

Despite deteriorating demand conditions, the outlook for the current U.S. burley marketing season is benefitting from a large decline in African burley production this past year, Snell says. "Kentucky burley yields will be higher, and overall the quality of the 2017 crop appears favorable for buyers." Good quality crops should average in the low to mid $1.90s, up a few cents from the past two seasons, he says. But Africans are boosting production in 2018 which will likely lead to a global surplus in the coming year. "Consequently, the early outlook is for a reduction in U.S. burley contract volume in 2018, especially if the 2017 crop comes near the level currently projected by USDA."

The dark tobacco outlook looks much brighter than does burley's. "After a dismal 2016 dark tobacco crop, the size and quality of the 2017 dark tobacco crop rebounded considerably this past season," says Snell. "USDA has the dark tobacco crop exceeding 70 million pounds, com-pared to less than 50 million pounds in 2016." Annual snuff consumption is still growing, but at a slower pace. Prices for this year's dark crop should continue to average around $2.40 per pound for dark air-cured and $2.75 per pound for dark fire-cured. "Look for dark tobacco contract volume to remain relatively constant for the coming year," says Snell.

Burley stripping is over half way complete in Kentucky. "It is a fairly decent crop," says Bob Pearce, Extension tobacco specialist. The quality is the best in several years." He hasn't seen enough crops to make a good estimate of the state's production, but he thinks USDA's most recent estimate of Kentucky burley--132 million pounds--is probably at least 10 percent too high.

The progress is similar in Tennessee, where Eric Walker, Tn. Extension tobacco specialist, says stripping is proceeding at an average pace or better. "Some farmers are not far from being done," he says.

No new varieties for burley or flue-cured this season, but Pearce says the relatively new burley variety from the Kentucky-Tennessee program--KT 215--seems to be catching on with growers because of its good resistance to Race 1 black shank. It is also resistant to fusarium wilt but has no resistance to potato virus Y.

GAP GROWER TRAINING EVENTS

North Carolina (Flue-cured)

January 8, 9 a.m.-12 p.m. Wilson County Ag. Ctr., 1806 Goldsboro St., Wilson.
January 9, 9 a.m.-12 p.m. Yadkin County Extension, 2051 Agricultural Way, Yadkinville.
January 10, 9 a.m. - 12 p.m. Edgecombe/Nash County, Farmers' Market, 1006 Peachtree St., Rocky Mount.
January 11, 9 a.m.-12 p.m. Johnston County Extension Office.
January 12, 9 a.m.-12 p.m. Granville County Expo & Convention Center, 4185 US-15, Oxford.
January 22. 9 a.m. - 12 p.m. Caswell County Civic Center, 536 Main St, Yanceyville. Also for farmers from Person, Alamance, Guilford and Orange Counties.
January 23, 9 a.m.-12 p.m. Forsyth County Extension Office., 1450 Fairchild Rd # 6, Winston-Salem.
January 24, 9 a.m.-12 p.m. Martin County Farmers Market, 4001 W Main Street Extn., Williamston.
January 25, 9 a.m.-12 p.m. Pitt County Cooperative Extension Office.
January 25, 2p.m. - 5p.m. Sampson County Ag Expo Center. Duplin County included.
January 26, 9 a.m.-12 p.m. Lenoir County Shrine Club, 1558 US-70, Kinston. Greene/Lenoir/Jones/Craven/Carteret Counties included.

January 29, 9 a.m.-12 p.m. Wayne County Extension Office.
January 30, 9 a.m.-12 p.m. Lee County Extension Office.

DATES TO REMEMBER

December 7, 8 a.m. N.C. Tobacco Day 2017. Johnston County Extension Center, 2736 N.C. Hwy. 210, Smithfield, N.C. Meeting ends with lunch.
January 17-18, 10 a.m. S.C. AgriBiz and Farm Expo Florence (S.C.) Civic Center at the junction of I-95 and I-20.
January 31-February 2, 9 a.m. Southern Farm Show. N.C. State Fair Grounds, Raleigh, N.C.
February 2, 10 a.m. Annual Meeting, Tobacco Growers Association of N.C., Holshouser Building, N.C. State Fairgrounds (during Southern Farm Show). Meeting ends with lunch.

Signup for GAP training at the Southern Farm Show several years ago. See below for dates and locations of GAP meetings in January and February. File photo by Chris Bickers.

One seed company gets out of flue-cured. Another gets in. Champion Seed, a 60-year-old company that specializes in vegetable seed, has acquired exclusive rights to market F.W. Rickard's flue-cured varieties after January 1. No change is expected in sales procedures for 2018: If you want Rickard flue-cured seed, simply go to the retailer that has sold them to you before, says Zeb James, Champion sales representative in Arapahoe, N.C. He is not taking orders himself, but if you have questions about the new arrangement, you may call him at 252-637-8903.

Stripping slowed: In parts of the Burley Belt, late November and early December were very dry. That interfered with stripping plans. Now, in some areas, farmers have a lot of tobacco still hanging in barns. East Tennessee is one such place. "We hope we have better conditions for stripping in January than we had in December," says Don Fowlkes, manager of agronomy for Burley Stabilization Corporation in Greeneville, Tn. "Tobacco hasn't come in and out of order much at all. Quality is a mixed bag."

Despite some late planting--and some very late harvesting--the 2017 flue-cured crop turned out fairly well for most growers in the N.C. Piedmont, says Tim Hambrick, N.C. Area Extension tobacco agent stationed in Winston-Salem. "They have a little more money in their pockets than last year," he says. There is a need for some invest-ment on many farms, but not much is likely to be made, due to uncertainty. This season will be remembered for its length: Harvest went well into November here, says Hambrick, in part because rains delayed some planting until late June.

Parts of the fire-cured crop in the Black Patch of Kentucky and Tennessee were harvested later than is desirable too, says Andy Bailey, Extension dark tobacco specialist. This should be avoided whenever possible. "We usually don't do as well with fire-cured that is cut after November 1. The tobacco normally has had some frost damage by that time, and it is more difficult to maintain temperatures that are needed for fire-curing once the weather gets colder in November." He says that is the case even with the newer, tighter barns.

Crop value up in the Commonwealth: The value of the Kentucky tobacco crop rose to around $350 million in 2017, up significantly from the $283 million taken in in 2016, according to University of Kentucky agricultural economists. A better growing season resulted in a higher quantity and quality crop for both burley and dark farmers.

Fewer flue-cured barns for sale? Because the dropout of growers is likely to be less due to the good season we just experienced, not as many used barns--especially not quality barns--will come on the market, says Bob Pope, owner of Long Equipment Manufacturing Company of Tarboro, N.C. On a related note: His company's name has changed from Long Tobacco Barns to Long Equipment Manufacturing, to reflect the broader product line that it now offers.

Meeting demand: Jim Schneeberger has been named Senior Vice President of Leaf Operations and Sales for the U.S. Tobacco Cooperative, part of an effort to better meet international and domestic demand for U.S. flue-cured tobacco while driving volume and growth, according to a USTC announcement. He had previously been USTC vice president for business development.

Briefly noted: Flue-cured grower Jerome Vick of Wilson County, N.C., and machinery manufacturers Randy and Don Watkins, of Granville Equipment Co. in Oxford, N.C., were named "Tobacco Greats" at the recent 2017 N.C. Tobacco Day in recognition of the significant contributions they have made to the tobacco industry.

GAP GROWER TRAINING EVENTS

Check with your local Extension Service office for further details.

All meetings listed here are free and presented in English.

Jan. 8, 9 a.m. Wilson, N.C.
Jan. 9, 9 a.m. Yadkinville, N.C.
Jan. 10, 9 a.m., Rocky Mount, N.C.
Jan. 11, 9 a.m., Smithfield, N.C.
Jan. 12, 9 a.m. Oxford, N.C.
Jan. 22, 9 a.m. Yanceyville, N.C.
Jan. 22, 6 p.m. Dixon, Ky.
Jan. 23, 9 a.m. Winston-Salem, N.C.
Jan. 23, 9 a.m. Blackstone, Va.
Jan. 23, 9:30 a.m. Dover, Tn.
Jan. 24, 9 a.m. Williamston, N.C.
Jan. 24, 4 p.m. South Hill, Va.
Jan. 25, 9 a.m. Greenville, N.C.
Jan. 25, 2 p.m., Clinton, N.C.
Jan. 25, 4 p.m. Chatham, Va.
Jan. 26, 9 a.m. Kinston, N.C.
Jan. 29, 9 a.m. Goldsboro, N.C.
Jan. 30, 9 a.m. Sanford, N.C.
Jan. 31, 10 a.m. Scottsburg, Va.
Feb. 2, 1:30 p.m. Raleigh, N.C. (at Southern Farm Show).
Feb. 5, 9 a.m. Lillington, N.C.
Feb. 5, 4:30 p.m. Franklin, Ky.
Feb. 6, 8:30 a.m. Springfield, Tn.
Feb. 8, 6 p.m. New Tazewell, Tn.
Feb. 13, 6 p.m. Athens, Tn.
Feb. 19, 12 p.m. Carthage, Tn.
Feb. 19, 6 p.m. Hartsville, Tn.
Feb. 20, 4:30 p.m. Clarksville, Tn.
Feb. 21, 8:30 a.m. Lawrenceburg, Tn.
Feb. 26, 4 p.m. Central City, Ky.
Feb. 26, 6 p.m. Lafayette, Tn.
Mar 7, 6 p.m. Greeneville, Tn.
Mar 20, 6:30 p.m. Gray, Tn.

DATES TO REMEMBER

January 11, 4 p.m. Burley Tobacco Growers Cooperative Association Annual Membership Meeting. Lexington, Ky. Convention Center, 4 p.m. (in conjunction with Tobacco Expo).
January 12, 12 noon. Council for Burley Tobacco Annual Meeting. Lexington (Ky.) Convention Center (in conjunction with Tobacco Expo).
January 17-18, 10 a.m. S.C. AgriBiz and Farm Expo Florence (S.C.) Civic Center at the junction of I-95 and I-20.
January 31-February 2, 9 a.m. Southern Farm Show. N.C. State Fairgrounds, Raleigh, N.C.
February 2, 10 a.m. Annual Meeting, Tobacco Growers Association of N.C., Holshouser Building, N.C. State Fairgrounds (in conjunction with Southern Farm Show). Meeting ends with lunch.

Editor's Note: We hope you have enjoyed the December II issue of Tobacco Farmer Newsletter. If you haven't signed on to receive the newsletter regularly, please email me at chrisbickers@gmail.com.--Chris Bickers

A fire-curing barn for dark tobacco "smokes" near Clarksville, Tn.

Could fire-cured tobacco production be on the way to extinction? Dark fire-cured tobacco is facing a serious potential challenge from a proposal made last year by the Food and Drug Administration to limit levels of NNN, a tobacco-specific nitrosamine (TSNA), to no more than 1 ppm in finished smokeless tobacco products. Although several production practices may influence NNN accumulation, the biggest factor by far is the weather during the curing season. "Generally, we see higher NNN in wetter curing seasons, and lower NNN in dryer curing seasons," says Andy Bailey, Extension tobacco specialist covering dark tobacco in Kentucky and Tennessee. "It is

possible for a grower to do everything in his control and still see NNN levels above 1 ppm if a wet curing season occurs. We don't believe this proposed standard is achievable consistently every year with our current technology."

For now, fire-cured growers should produce a crop that is as low in TSNAs as possible, says Bailey. Here are some tips on how to do that:

Don't harvest or house wet tobacco,
Use plenty of ventilation while curing. Adding air through the tobacco with bottom ventilators should be a standard practice.
Start firing within one week of housing..
Keep curing temperatures no higher than 130 degrees for no more than four to five days, even during the drying stage.
Nitrogen application has an effect on all this, but fire-cured growers in the Black Patch are already following the fertilization practices that could help.
There will eventually be help from breeding, with several varieties with lower potential to produce NNN in the pipeline.

Final numbers on flue-cured: At 209,500 acres, harvested area of U.S. flue-cured was down slightly from 213,500 acres in 2016. Yield was estimated at 2,254 pounds per

acre, over 200 pounds more than the 2016 yield of 2,021. Consequently, prod-uction in 2017 is forecast at 472,200 pounds, up from 431,450 pounds in 2016.

Will there be too much burley ... again? Following a much smaller crop last year, African growers are increasing production , says Will Snell, Kentucky Exten-sion tobacco economist. As predicted earlier, a global surplus is likely in the coming year. "Demand con-ditions for U.S. burley re-main soft in the inter-national market, with glo-bal cigarette consumption falling and ample, less expensive foreign burley supplies available to buy-ers," he says. "U.S. burley exports fell 24 percent in 2016 and are down more than 15 percent late in 2017."

The only visa program available for agricultural labor in crop season 2018 will be H-2A, says Rick Alexander, Executive Director, Agriculture Workforce Management Association. There has been much talk of a proposed H2C program, but it will not materialize in time for 2018, if ever. "A description of the H-2A program and all the required forms are on our website at www.awmalabor.com," he says.

Alexander and Snell will two of four featured speak-ers at the Burley Tobacco Growers Cooperative Asso-ciation Annual Meeting in Lexington, Ky., on Thurs-day. Others will be Greg Harris, president, Council for Burley Tobacco, and Daniel Green, president, International Tobacco Gro-wers Assn. The Council for Burley Tobacco Annual Meeting will take place at the same site Friday.

Funding for lighting upgrades: You may be able to obtain a grant of at least $1,500 up to a maximum of $500,000 toward renewable energy systems through USDA's Rural Energy for America Program (REAP). If you are a customer of Duke Energy, you may also be able to qualify for that company's Rebate program, which is designed to absorb up to 75 percent of the cost of qualifying lighting upgrades. Application should be made through Elite Lighting, which is cooperating with Duke Energy in this program. For a free energy assessment and more information, you can contact Natalie Pulley, Elite Lighting, at 919-369-3943 or natalie@elitelighting.com.

Finally, a note from the editor: One of my pastimes is collecting Native American handicrafts. Late last year, I attended a festival for tribes in North Carolina, and at one of the handicraft stands, I came across this little pottery turtle (photo). It is hand made of red and white clay b

y Senora Lynch of the Haliwa Sapponi tribe near War-renton, N.C. She had etched a stylized tobacco plant on the turtle's shell and in fact has it growing from a stylized ear of corn. Well, I found it very cheering: The little "tobacco turtle" seemed to speak of good fortune for our commodity in the coming year. Not surprisingly, the figurine is now in my possession. But Senora has plenty more, I am sure. For more information, contact her at (252) 257-5771 /jetndal@yahoo.com.

We hope you have enjoyed the January I issue of Tobacco Farmer Newsletter. If you haven't signed on to receive the newsletter regularly, please email me at chrisbickers@gmail.com.--Chris Bickers

GAP GROWER TRAINING EVENTS

Check with your local Extension Service office for further details.

All meetings listed here are free and presented in English.

January 10, 9 a.m. Rocky Mount, N.C.
January 11, 9 a.m. Smithfield, N.C.
January 12, 9 a.m. Lexington, Ky. (in conjunction with Tobacco Expo).
January 12, 9 a.m. Oxford, N.C.
January 22, 9 a.m. Yanceyville, N.C.
January 22, 6 p.m. Dixon, Ky.
January 23, 9 a.m. Winston-Salem, N.C.
January 23, 9 a.m. Blackstone, Va.
January 23, 9:30 a.m. Dover, Tn.
January 24, 9 a.m. Williamston, N.C.
January 24, 4 p.m. South Hill, Va.
January 25, 9 a.m. Greenville, N.C.
January 25, 2 p.m. Clinton, N.C.
January 25, 4 p.m. Chatham, Va.
January 26, 9 a.m. Shelbyville, Ky.
January 26, 9 a.m. Kinston, N.C.
January 26, 1 p.m. New Castle, Ky.
January 29, 9 a.m. Goldsboro, N.C.
January 30, 9 a.m. Sanford, N.C.
January 31, 10 a.m. Scottsburg, Va.

February 1, 6 p.m. Stanford, Ky.
February 2, 1:30 p.m. Raleigh, N.C. (in conjunction with Southern Farm Show).
February 5, 9 a.m. Lillington, N.C.
February 5, 4:30 p.m. Franklin, Ky.
February 5, 6 p.m. Scottsville, Ky.
February 6, 8:30 a.m. Springfield, Tn. (in conjunction with Kentucky-Tennessee Tobacco Expo).
February 8, 5 p.m. Albany, Ky.
February 8, 6 p.m. New Tazewell, Tn.
February 13, 6 p.m. Athens, Tn.
February 19, 12 p.m. Carthage, Tn.
February 19, 6 p.m. Hartsville, Tn.
February 20, 4:30 p.m. Clarksville, Tn.
February 20, 6 p.m. Sharpsburg, Ky.
February 21, 8:30 a.m. Lawrenceburg, Tn.
February 22, 6 p.m. Maysville, Ky.
February 26, 4 p.m. Central City, Ky.
February 26, 6 p.m. Lafayette, Tn.
February 26, 6 p.m. Bowling Green, Ky.

March 1, 10 a.m. Campbridge City, In.
March 6, 2:30 p.m. Mayfield, Ky.
March 7, 6 p.m. Greeneville, Tn.
March 12, 10:30 a.m. Tifton, Ga.
March 13, 10:30 a.m. Marion, S.C.
March 13, 1 p.m. Murray, Ky.
March 20, 6:30 p.m. Glasgow, Ky.
March 20, 6:30 p.m. Gray, Tn.

DATES TO REMEMBER

January 11, 4 p.m. Burley Tobacco Growers Cooperative Association Annual Membership Meeting. Lexington, Ky. Convention Center, 4 p.m. (in conjunction with Tobacco Expo).
January 12, 12 noon. Council for Burley Tobacco Annual Meeting. Lexington (Ky.) Convention Center (in conjunction with Tobacco Expo).
January 15-18. Tobacco Workers' Conference. Hilton Myrtle Beach Resort, Myrtle Beach, S.C.
January 17-18, 10 a.m. S.C. AgriBiz and Farm Expo Florence (S.C.) Civic Center at the junction of I-95 and I-20.
January 31-February 2, 9 a.m. Southern Farm Show. N.C. State Fairgrounds, Raleigh, N.C.
February 2, 10 a.m. Annual Meeting, Tobacco Growers Association of N.C., Holshouser Building, N.C. State Fairgrounds (in conjunction with Southern Farm Show). Meeting ends with lunch.

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No more tobacco presence: The University of Tennessee has ended tobacco research at the Research & Education Center in Greeneville, Tn. See "End of an era" below.

Steaming trays 30 minutes at 176°F is an excellent alternative to fumigation for sanitizing greenhouse trays, says Lindsey Thiessen, N.C. Extension plant pathologist. "[But] growers who know greenhouse transplants were a source of TMV or black root rot should dispose of the trays that were used to produce them and purchase new ones."

It was cold in early January, but if you have had problems with tomato spotted wilt virus, let's hope for some more. "Colder winters may suppress thrips populations and the spread of TSWV among weeds, resulting in a smaller inoculum source in the spring," says Thiessen. "A relatively warm winter before the field season allows thrips to be active during much of the winter, spreading the disease among weed hosts, as well as increasing thrips survival and increasing their populations."

Workman makes a big move in the burley/dark seed market: Rickard's dark and burley varieties have been bought by Workman Tobacco Seed Co. of Murray, Ky. Richard Price, vice president of Workman, says his company has purchased Rickard's seed lots of burley and dark tobacco. "All of our seed will continue to be available through our dealers," he says. "We have ample supply of seed for the season." Thanks to the purchase, Workman's offerings now include the burley varieties HB 4488PLC, HB 3307PLC, HB 04PLC, NCBH 129LC and R7-12LC and the dark fired varieties PD 7305LC, PD 7309LC, PD 7318LC, PD 7319LC, PD 7312LC and Shirey LC. Earlier, Champion Seed bought Rickard's flue-cured varieties (See TFN December II 2017).

What burley varieties will be tops in 2018? Price predicts that four varieties will dominate the burley seed market this season: NC-7, KT 215, KT 209 and HB 4488. "These varieties will account for the lion's share of the business," he says.

New dark variety: There is a relatively new dark fire-cured variety on the market this year. It comes from the KY-TN seed program and is called KT D17LC. "It has potential to be a very good variety for our producers," says Price. It has superior yield, quality and black shank resistance compared to current commercial varieties, according to Extension sources. Workman has KT D17LC ready for shipment to its dealers, Price says.

End of an era: After 85 years, tobacco research at the Tennessee Research & Education Center located in Greeneville, Tenn., has come to an end. To increase efficiency, University of Te-nnessee administrators have elected to concentrate all the state's tobacco research for all three types grown in the state [burley and both dark types] at the Highland Rim Research & Education Center in Springfield. There will be one exception: The Kentucky-Tennessee tobacco breeding program will continue at the Greeneville station, at least for the moment.

Will the quality of research be affected? There are certainly some agronomic differences between the two locations. The elevation at the Greeneville station is about 1,400 feet above seal level and about 700 feet at the Springfield station. Soil types and weather patterns differ to some degree also. But Ellis doesn't expect these factors to prove a barrier to tobacco research. "I don't see any danger of research not getting done here, as long as someone needs it," says Rob Ellis, the director of both stations.

The Greeneville station is not going away. Research will continue in Greeneville on beef production, field crops and other topics. Ellis says there may be some reductions in staff at some point in the future. No staff changes are expected at the Springfield station for now, he adds...The station was opened in 1932, specifically for research on burley.

GAP GROWER TRAINING EVENTS

Check with your local Extension Service office for further details.

All meetings listed here are free and presented in English.

January 23, 9 a.m. Winston-Salem, N.C.
January 23, 9 a.m. Blackstone, Va.
January 23, 9:30 a.m. Dover, Tn.
January 23, 1 p.m. Nashville, Ga.
January 24, 9 a.m. Williamston, N.C.
January 24, 4 p.m. South Hill, Va.
January 25, 9 a.m. Greenville, N.C.
January 25, 2 p.m. Clinton, N.C.
January 25, 4 p.m. Chatham, Va.
January 26, 9 a.m. Shelbyville, Ky.
January 26, 9 a.m. Kinston, N.C.
January 26, 1 p.m. New Castle, Ky.
January 29, 9 a.m. Goldsboro, N.C.
January 30, 9 a.m. Sanford, N.C.
January 31, 10 a.m. Scottsburg, Va.

February 1, 6 p.m. Stanford, Ky.
February 2, 1:30 p.m. Raleigh, N.C. (part of the Southern Farm Show).
February 5, 9 a.m. Lillington, N.C.
February 5, 4:30 p.m. Franklin, Ky.
February 5, 6 p.m. Scottsville, Ky.
February 6, 8 a.m. Springfield, Tn. (part of Ky-Tn Tobacco Expo).
February 8, 5 p.m. Albany, Ky.
February 8, 6 p.m. New Tazewell, Tn.
February 13, 6 p.m. Athens, Tn.
February 13, 1 p.m. Scottsburg, In.
February 13, 6 p.m. Vevay, In.
February 19, 12 p.m. Carthage, Tn.
February 22, 1 p.m. West Union, Oh.
February 23, 1 p.m. Paoli, In.
February 19, 6 p.m. Hartsville, Tn.
February 20, 4:30 p.m. Clarksville, Tn.
February 20, 6 p.m. Sharpsburg, Ky.
February 21, 8:30 a.m. Lawrenceburg, Tn.
February 22, 6 p.m. Maysville, Ky.
February 26, 4 p.m. Central City, Ky.
February 26, 6 p.m. Lafayette, Tn.
February 26, 6 p.m. Bowling Green, Ky.
Feb 27, 10:30 a.m. Morehead, Ky.

Feb 28, 10:30 a.m. Owensboro, Ky.
March 1, 10 a.m. Campbridge City, In.
March 1, 10:30 a.m. Hopkinsville, Ky.
March 2, 10:30 a.m. Lexington, Ky.
March 6, 2:30 p.m. Mayfield, Ky.
March 7, 6 p.m. Greeneville, Tn.
March 7, 1 p.m. Nashville, Ga.
March 12, 10:30 a.m. Tifton, Ga.
March 13, 10:30 a.m. Marion, S.C.
March 13, 1 p.m. Murray, Ky.
March 20, 6:30 p.m. Glasgow, Ky.
March 20, 6:30 p.m. Gray, Tn.
March 21, 10 a.m. Wilson, N.C.

DATES TO REMEMBER

January 31-February 2, 9 a.m. Southern Farm Show. N.C. State Fairgrounds, Raleigh, N.C. See below for exhibitor list.
February 2, 10 a.m. Annual Meeting, Tobacco Growers Association of N.C., Holshouser Building, N.C. State Fairgrounds (in conjunction with Southern Farm Show). Meeting ends with lunch.

SOUTHERN FARM SHOW EXHIBITORS

Exhibits of interest to tobacco growers listed by their location on the N.C. State Fairgrounds, January 31 through February 2. This list courtesy of Southern Shows Inc. This list will appear again in the next issue of TFN. Corrections and additions welcomed. See email address and phone number at the top.

Jim Graham Bldg.

222 Evans Mactavish Agricraft.
227 Kelley Mfg. Co. Agricultural equipment.
704 (also 8131) Agri Supply. Agricultural materials.
807 Mechanical Transplanter Co. Transplanters, seeding equipment.
808 BulkTobac (Gas Fired Products). Curing equipment and controls.

Kerr Scott Bldg.

1015 Yara North America. Fertility products.
1002 TriEst Ag Group. Fumigation supplies.
1107 Flue Cured Tobacco Services. Curing controls.
1104 GoldLeaf Seed Co. Tobacco seed.
1114 BeltWide Inc. Transplant technology.
1115 Transplant Systems. Greenhouse systems.
1116 Cross Creek Seed. Tobacco seed.
1121 AAA Scale Co.
1201 Carolina Greenhouse & Soil Company.
1202 Reddick Equipment Company Inc.
1302 Mid-Atlantic Irrigation Co.

Exposition Bldg.

3127&8609 Benchmark Buildings & Irrigation. Transplanters/irrigation.
3135 Southern Container Corporation of Wilson. Bale sheets and packaging.
3311 Flame Engineering. Weed control with flame.
3522 First Products Inc. Fertilizer boxes for cultivators and tool bars.
3605 MarCo Mfg. Tobacco machinery.
4018 Conklin Company. AgroVantage System to boost genetic potential.
4035 Bio-Organic Catalyst.

Scott Tent

7025 Drexel Chemical Company. Sucker control chemicals.
7027 ABI Irrigation. Irrigation equipment.

Tent 1

7302 Fairbanks Scale
7334 BJ Williamson Greenhouses.

Outdoors

8039 Vause Equipment Co. Farm equipment.
8206 Wilson Manufacturing. Farm trailers
8204 Equipmax. Tobacco spray equipment.
8217 Granville Equipment. Tobacco Machinery.
8510 Walters Air Assist Plant Release System. Plant release system.
8301 De Cloet SRL. Tobacco machinery.
8507 World Tobacco. Bulk fertilizer handling equipment. Curing barns.
8546 & 227 Kelley Mfg. Co. Agricultural equipment.
8701 Tytun Ltd. Bulk flue-curing barns.
8705 Long Tobacco Barn Co. Bulk tobacco curing barns.

Show time coming up: The Southern Farm Show starts Wednesday, January 31, and runs through Friday at the North Carolina State Fairgrounds in Raleigh. Gates open at 9 a.m. and close at 4 p.m. Admission is free and there is no charge for parking. For more information, go to https://southernshows.com. See list of tobacco-related exhi-bitors below.

Growers meet: The annual meeting of the Tobacco Growers Association will take place at the show on Friday, February 2. It starts at 10 a.m. in the Holshouser Building and ends at lunch. GAP training will be available afterward.

A show in Tennessee: The Tn-Ky Tobacco Expo will take place February 6, at the Robertson County Fairgrounds in Spring-field, Tn. The show runs 8 a.m. to 1:30 p.m., with GAP Training available, and a sponsored lunch will end with a panel made up of Andy Bailey, UT/UK tobacco specialist; Joe Beeler, UT research associate; Emily Pfeufer, UK plant pathologist and Eric Walker, UT/UK tobacco specialist.

Heated tobacco products heating up: A new category of smoking implement-heat not burn or HNB--is making a big impression on foreign markets, though not yet in the U.S. But if it is approved by FDA becomes as popular here as in, for instance, Japan, it could become a significant end use of American tobacco.

The HNB concept revolves around rechargeable electronic device that looks like a pen and heats specially designed tobacco units, generating a tobacco flavored nicotine "aerosol" that the consumer inhales through the mouth. The heat never reaches the level of combustion.

The possibility that U.S. leaf might have a place in HNB industry was a hot topic at the Tobacco Workers Conference in Myrtle Beach, January 15-17. Some observations that were heard:

The HNB market is a "whole different ball game," said Blake Brown, NC Extension economist. It could potentially be a "game changer" for the tobacco industry, he said.
HNB products contain much less tobacco than do combustible cigarettes--perhaps one third to one half--but the tobacco will have to be of higher quality.
It is expected that this tobacco will have to be grown on largescale farms, so flue-cured growers seem more likely to produce HNB tobacco than burley growers (but that could change).
Growers in Italy and the United States are the likeliest candidates to grow it, Brown said, although Brazil could perhaps get into it also.
Lamina only: HNB tobacco is strictly a lamina product and will contain no stems, says J. Michael Moore, Georgia Extension tobacco specialist.
Quality will be very important, and growers will have to adhere strictly to the Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) recommended by the industry. Moore has seen evidence that companies will stress complete freedom in the leaf from residues of certain chemicals and some may have begun already.
Not enough sugar? Moore thinks a higher sugar content may prove desirable to HNB manufacturers. "Farmers could probably achieve that by producing a little riper crop," he says.

GAP GROWER TRAINING EVENTS

Check with your local Extension Service office for further details.

All meetings listed here are free and presented in English.

- January 30, 9 a.m. Sanford, N.C.
- January 31, 10 a.m. Scottsburg, Va.
- February 1, 6 p.m. Stanford, Ky.
- February 2, 1:30 p.m. Raleigh, N.C. (Southern Farm Show).
- February 5, 9 a.m. Lillington, N.C.
- February 5, 4:30 p.m. Franklin, Ky.
- February 5, 6 p.m. Scottsville, Ky.
- February 6, 8 a.m. Springfield, Tn. (Ky-Tn Tobacco Expo).
- February 8, 5 p.m. Albany, Ky.
- February 8, 6 p.m. New Tazewell, Tn.
- February 13, 6 p.m. Athens, Tn.
- February 13, 1 p.m. Scottsburg, In.
- February 13, 6 p.m. Vevay, In.
- February 19, 12 p.m. Carthage, Tn.
- February 22, 1 p.m. West Union, Oh.
- February 23, 1 p.m. Paoli, In.
- February 19, 6 p.m. Hartsville, Tn.
- February 20, 4:30 p.m. Clarksville, Tn.
- February 20, 6 p.m. Sharpsburg, Ky.
- February 21, 8:30 a.m. Lawrenceburg, Tn.
- February 22, 6 p.m. Maysville, Ky.
- February 26, 4 p.m. Central City, Ky.
- February 26, 6 p.m. Lafayette, Tn.
- February 26, 6 p.m. Bowling Green, Ky.
- February 27, 10:30 a.m. Morehead, Ky.
- February 28, 10 a.m. Hardinsburg, Ky.
- Feb 28, 10:30 a.m. Owensboro, Ky.
- March 1, 10 a.m. Campbridge City, In.
- March 1, 10:30 a.m. Hopkinsville, Ky.
- March 2, 10:30 a.m. Lexington, Ky.
- March 6, 2:30 p.m. Mayfield, Ky.
- March 7, 6 p.m. Greeneville, Tn.
- March 7, 1 p.m. Nashville, Ga.
- March 12, 10:30 a.m. Tifton, Ga.
- March 13, 10:30 a.m. Marion, S.C.
- March 13, 1 p.m. Murray, Ky.
- March 20, 6:30 p.m. Glasgow, Ky.
- March 20, 6:30 p.m. Gray, Tn.
- March 21, 10 a.m. Wilson, N.C.
- March 22, 7 p.m. Bedford, Ky.
- March 26, 6 p.m. Bardstown, Ky.

DATES TO REMEMBER

January 31-February 2, 9 a.m. Southern Farm Show. N.C. State Fairgrounds, Raleigh, N.C. See below for exhibitor list.
February 2, 10 a.m. Annual Meeting, Tobacco Growers Association of N.C., Holshouser Building, N.C. State Fairgrounds (in conjunction with Southern Farm Show). Meeting ends with lunch.
February 6, 8 a.m. Tn-Ky Tobacco Expo. Robertson County Fairgrounds in Springfield, Tn. The show ends with lunch.

SOUTHERN FARM SHOW EXHIBITORS

Exhibits of interest to tobacco growers listed by their location on the N.C. State Fairgrounds.

Jim Graham Bldg.

222 Evans Mactavish Agricraft.
227 Kelley Mfg. Co. Agricultural equipment.
704 (also 8131) Agri Supply. Agricultural materials.
807 Mechanical Transplanter Co. Transplanters, seeding equipment.
808 BulkTobac (Gas Fired Products). Curing equipment and controls.

Kerr Scott Bldg.

1015 Yara North America. Fertility products.
1002 TriEst Ag Group. Fumigation supplies.
1107 Flue Cured Tobacco Services. Curing controls.
1104 GoldLeaf Seed Co. Tobacco seed.
1114 BeltWide Inc. Transplant technology.
1115 Transplant Systems. Greenhouse systems.
1116 Cross Creek Seed. Tobacco seed.
1121 AAA Scale Co.
1201 Carolina Greenhouse & Soil Company.
1202 Reddick Equipment Company Inc.
1302 Mid-Atlantic Irrigation Co.

Exposition Bldg.

3127&8609 Benchmark Buildings & Irrigation. Transplanters/irrigation.
3135 Southern Container Corporation of Wilson. Bale sheets and packaging.
3311 Flame Engineering. Weed control with flame.
3522 First Products Inc. Fertilizer boxes for cultivators and tool bars.
3605 MarCo Mfg. Tobacco machinery.
4018 Conklin Company. AgroVantage System to boost genetic potential.
4035 Bio-Organic Catalyst.

Scott Tent

7025 Drexel Chemical Company. Sucker control chemicals.
7027 ABI Irrigation. Irrigation equipment.

Tent 1

7302 Fairbanks Scale
7334 BJ Williamson Greenhouses.

Outdoors

8039 Vause Equipment Co. Farm equipment.
8206 Wilson Manufacturing. Farm trailers
8204 Equipmax. Tobacco spray equipment.
8217 Granville Equipment. Tobacco Machinery.
8510 Walters Air Assist Plant Release System. Plant release system.
8301 De Cloet SRL. Tobacco machinery.
8507 World Tobacco. Bulk fertilizer handling equipment. Curing barns.
8546 & 227 Kelley Mfg. Co. Agricultural equipment.
8701 Tytun Ltd. Bulk flue-curing barns.
8705 Long Tobacco Barn Co. Bulk tobacco curing barns.

With Dorton Arena looming in the background, farmers confer in front of the Company Wrench display at the Southern Farm Show on February 1. The display included the JCB Teleskid (just visible at left), the first skid steer or compact tracked loader with a telescopic boom on the market. It attracted a steady stream of visitors, as seen here.

How to sanitize float trays: Since the loss of methyl bromide, steam cleaning trays at a water temperature at 176 degrees for at least 30 minutes has become a popular strategy for replacing fumigation. At the Southern Farm Show in Raleigh, N.C., at the end of January, three brands of "steamers" attracted a stream of interested farmers:

The newest was the Agri-Steamer sanitation system from Evans MacTavish in Wilson, N.C. The Agri-Steamer offers 800- to 1,900-tray capacity with access doors at both ends that allow for easy loading and unloading.
Long Equipment Mfg. in Tarboro, N.C., which introduced its Steaming Eagle steamer at the 2016 Southern Farm Show, now is marketing a "second generation" unit called the Steaming Eagle XL, which can be operated at a much faster speed than the original Steaming Eagle.
Carolina Greenhouses of Kinston, N.C., entry into the market is called the Steamerator. The conventional sized unit holds approximately 840 trays. The company also markets a small steamer called the "Mini" for limited acreage. It steams approximately 240 trays per rotation.

There is another strategy for sanitizing. Beltwide Inc. of Tampa, Fl., makes its Trilogy Tray from injection-molded plastic, and it is expected to last longer than standard expanded polystyrene. The Trilogy Tray is much easier to sanitize:

Simply spray with a high-pressure water hose or pressure washer. No need for a steamer. Belt-wide says Trilogy Trays are more durable. But cost is an issue.

A high-clearance spra-yer tailor-made for tobacco attracted a lot of attention at the Raleigh show. Randy Watkins, co-owner of Gran-ville Equipment, said the 420TS sprayer is fitted with a 420-gallon tank, a John Deere premium cab and a Deere diesel engine. It has three-speed transmission and all-wheel drive. A simple nozzle rotation allows for different chemical applications like contact sucker, fungicide and broadcast.

More on heat-not-burn products: The Tobacco Growers Association of N.C. voted at its annual meeting February 2 to support--with a couple of conditions--the HNB concept. "We would support a product that uses quality U.S. tobacco," said Graham

Boyd, the executive vice president of the organization. "But we want to see it manufactured in the U.S. of 100 percent U.S. tobacco."

One problem will likely arise if the industry con-verts to HNB, said Blake Brown, N.C. Extension eco-nomist, who spoke at the Tobacco Growers Associ-ation of N.C. Meeting. The requirements of HNB pro-duction seem certain to make it more expensive to produce. "Will buyers be willing to pay these higher costs?" he asked.

Editor's Note: Watch for more coverage of the South-ern Farm Show and the tob-acco growers meeting in the next issue of Tobacco Farmer Newsletter.

Report from overseas: Zimbabwe's export incentive for leaf growers has been raised from five percent to 12.5 percent for the 2018 tobacco marketing season. As in the past, the new incentive will be paid directly into the grower's bank account on a monthly basis, according to a statement from the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe. The statement warned tobacco growers "to desist from selling their tobacco to middlemen, as doing so would result in...losing out on the Export Incentive."

First estimate of 2018 production: Universal Leaf issued its first estimate of leaf production for 2018 on February 6. It predicts:

Flue-Cured--The world total is estimated at 8,177 million green pounds, down three percent from the previous season. Brazil's crop is estimated at 1,322 million green pounds, down three percent from last season, while the USA's crop is estimated at 430 million green pounds, up less than one percent from last season. The PRC flue-cured crop is estimated at 3,858 million green pounds, down eight percent from last season.
Burley--The world total will be up 15 percent at 1,303 million green pounds. Brazil's burley crop is estimated at 165 million green pounds, up 6.6 percent, while the USA crop is down an estimated 1.5 percent at 143 million green pounds. The PRC burley crop is estimated at 143 million green pounds, same as last season.
Oriental--The world total is up nearly five percent at 392 million green pounds.
Dark Air-Cured--The world total is up 11.5 percent at 255 million green pounds.

DATES TO REMEMBER

March 2, 10 a.m. Tobacco Associates Inc. Annual Meeting. Wilson County Agricultural Center, 1806 S. Goldsboro St., Wilson, N.C.

GAP GROWER TRAINING EVENTS

Check with your local Extension Service office for further details.

All meetings listed here are free and presented in English.

February 19, 12 p.m. Carthage, Tn.
February 22, 1 p.m. West Union, Oh.
February 23, 1 p.m. Paoli, In.
February 19, 6 p.m. Hartsville, Tn.
February 20, 4:30 p.m. Clarksville, Tn.
February 20, 6 p.m. Sharpsburg, Ky.
February 21, 8:30 a.m. Lawrenceburg, Tn.
February 22, 6 p.m. Maysville, Ky.
February 26, 4 p.m. Central City, Ky.
February 26, 6 p.m. Lafayette, Tn.
February 26, 6 p.m. Bowling Green, Ky.
February 27, 10:30 a.m. Morehead, Ky.
February 28, 10 a.m. Hardinsburg, Ky.
Feb 28, 10:30 a.m. Owensboro, Ky.
March 1, 10 a.m. Campbridge City, In.
March 1, 10:30 a.m. Hopkinsville, Ky.
March 2, 10:30 a.m. Lexington, Ky.
March 6, 2:30 p.m. Mayfield, Ky.
March 7, 6 p.m. Greeneville, Tn.
March 7, 1 p.m. Nashville, Ga.
March 12, 10:30 a.m. Tifton, Ga.
March 13, 10:30 a.m. Marion, S.C.
March 13, 1 p.m. Murray, Ky.
March 19, 9 a.m. Mechanicsville, Md.
March 20, 1 p.m. Quarryville, Pa.
March 20, 9 a.m. Quarryville, Pa.
March 20, 6:30 p.m. Glasgow, Ky.
March 20, 6:30 p.m. Gray, Tn.
March 20, 7 p.m., Georgetown, Ohio.
March 21, 10 a.m. Wilson, N.C.
March 21, 9 a.m. New Holland, Pa.
March 21, 1 p.m. New Holland, Pa.
March 22, 1 p.m. Turbotville, Pa.
March 22, 9 a.m. Turbotville, Pa.
March 22, 7 p.m. Bedford, Ky.
March 26, 6 p.m. Bardstown, Ky.

ADVERTISING

A new tool for transplanting: This new FMax transplanter from Ferrari in Italy, seen here on display at the recent Southern Farm Show, can plant continuously on different soil types without requiring an adjustment. "You can run from red clay to sand without missing a lick," says Don Watkins of Granville Equipment, which is distributing the transplanter in the U.S. It can be built for two to eight rows, he adds.

Seeding is well under way in eastern North Carolina, says Matthew Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist. And it is getting started in the west, he adds. "It is going pretty well so far. The ambient air temperatures have been good."

The only problem: Overcast conditions have reduced the light available for germination. "We like to see four or five consecutive days of clear, sunny skies when we seed," says Vann. "However, cloudy conditions do not seem to have caused any major issues to date."

When will transplanting begin in N.C.? To this point, one might expect that plants will get to the field in a timely manner, starting maybe April 15 to 20. "But we usually have some growers who want to get out sooner," Vann says.

Report from Ontario: Contracting is for the most part complete in Canada's tobacco-growing area of southern Ontario, says David VanDeVelde, flue-cured grower in Delhi, Ontario. Official statistics won't be available for a while, but VanDeVelde believes acreage pla-nted will be down slightly from 2017, when 193 growers contracted for 18,491 acres. In 2016, 195 growers contracted for 15,353 acres. VanDeVelde is the new chair of Ontario Flue Cured Tobacco Growers marketing board.

North of the border, labor is out of sight: Quite a few Canadian tobacco growers attended the Southern Farm Show in Raleigh earlier this month. Among them were Paul and Desiree Arva of Mount Pleasant, Ontario, who came down from Canada looking for labor-saving tobacco machinery. "We just had a big increase in in the minimum wage," they said. "We need to find any way we can to reduce the labor we need to produce a crop."

VanDeVelde confirmed Arva's report, noting that there had been a 23 percent increase in Canada's minimum wage in the past year. "Farmers are definitely looking for labor-saving equipment." Most tobacco labor is brought in from the Caribbean and Mexico. All Canada's tobacco, by the way, is flue-cured. Substantially all of it is grown in Ontario.

Zimbabwe down: Plantings of the 2017/18 tobacco crop in Zimbabwe is down 5.5 percent from the same period last year, to 104,397 hectares, according to the Tobacco Industry and Marketing Board in that country. The decline is largely attributed to the late onset of rains in the previous summer, when planting takes place. Flue-cured is the leading type in Zimbabwe.

Malawi suffering drought: Thanks to an intense drought, Malawi's tobacco production for this year was estimated at about 149 million kilograms in January, almost 12.8 percent less than international market demand, a national survey showed. Another survey will be released in March, and there is some optimism about what it will say. "At the time of assessment, much of the crop, especially in the Southern Region, was affected by the dry spell," said Kaisi Sadala, chief executive officer of the Tobacco Control Commission. "We are expecting that, with the advent of rainfall now, the picture should be different when we are doing the last crop assessment." Last year, the country grew about 124 million kg of all types of tobacco. Burley is by far the leading type.

Industry report: Vaping benign? A public health agency in England created a controversy a few weeks ago when it issued a review of the available evidence that concluded that vaping poses only a fraction of the health risk of tobacco smoking and should be encouraged among smokers seeking health benefits. Unfortunately, that doesn't help tobacco farmers because vaping products contain essentially no tobacco.

Date To Remember: On March 2 at 10 a.m., the annual meeting of Tobacco Associates Inc. will take place at the Wilson County Agricultural Center, 1806 S. Goldsboro St., Wilson, N.C.

GAP GROWER TRAINING EVENTS

Check with your local Extension Service office for further details.

All meetings listed here are free and presented in English.

February 26, 4 p.m. Central City, Ky.
February 26, 6 p.m. Lafayette, Tn.
February 26, 6 p.m. Bowling Green, Ky.
February 27, 10:30 a.m. Morehead, Ky.
February 28, 10 a.m. Hardinsburg, Ky.
Feb 28, 10:30 a.m. Owensboro, Ky.
March 1, 10 a.m. Campbridge City, In.
March 1, 10:30 a.m. Hopkinsville, Ky.
March 2, 10:30 a.m. Lexington, Ky.
March 6, 2:30 p.m. Mayfield, Ky.
March 7, 6 p.m. Greeneville, Tn.
March 7, 1 p.m. Nashville, Ga.
March 12, 10:30 a.m. Tifton, Ga.
March 13, 10:30 a.m. Marion, S.C.
March 13, 1 p.m. Murray, Ky.
March 19, 9 a.m. Mechanicsville, Md.
March 20, 1 p.m. Quarryville, Pa.
March 20, 9 a.m. Quarryville, Pa.
March 20, 6:30 p.m. Glasgow, Ky.
March 20, 6:30 p.m. Gray, Tn.
March 20, 7 p.m., Georgetown, Ohio.
March 21, 10 a.m. Wilson, N.C.
March 21, 9 a.m. New Holland, Pa.
March 21, 1 p.m. New Holland, Pa.
March 22, 1 p.m. Turbotville, Pa.
March 22, 9 a.m. Turbotville, Pa.
March 22, 7 p.m. Bedford, Ky.
March 26, 6 p.m. Bardstown, Ky.
March 28, 7 p.m. Georgetown, Oh.

Clipped and ready to go, these flue-cured plants await transplanting in this file photo from eastern North Carolina.

There may be a crop or two planted in Florida this week, but most growers there will probably wait till March 20 or later, while Georgians will probably start in earnest around April 7, says J. Michael Moore, Georgia/Florida Extension tobacco specialist. "We will have plants in plenty of time. Farmers are already clipping on a regular basis." Most plants are of good color, he adds. There have been no issues with insects and only a little pythium.

Steaming is catching on in Georgia, says Moore, as a few commercial plant producers are providing steaming as a service to their customers. Farmers are still doing some rinsing of trays. But dipping or rinsing trays in cleanser is only surface cleaning, and it can't provide decontamination of pathogens embedded in the walls of the trays.

In Kentucky, a few steamers have been used but the traditional dip treatment in a 10 percent bleach solution remains the most common strategy, says Bob Pearce, Kentucky Extension tobacco specialist.

Another possibility: Trilogy trays have actually done well in Kentucky testing. "We looked at them side by side with other treatments, and there was little difference in performance," says Pearce. "The biggest issue is price, although it seems like the trays are durable enough to last longer than conventional trays. But many growers are reluctant to make a long-term investment."

A proactive approach to disease control in the greenhouse is a key to growing a quality transplant, says Pearce. Leafspot diseases are a good example. "You need to begin preventive spray when plants are just big enough to cover the cell," he says. "Spray Manzate once a week, substituting Quadris one week."

AND THE WINNERS WERE:

A number of awards were presented--and one new grower leader was introduced--during the 2018 Southern Farm Show held from January 31-February 2 in Raleigh.

The Tobacco Growers Association of North Carolina presented six awards during its annual meeting on the last day of the show:

Distinguished Service Award--Ray Star-ling, Special Assistant to the U.S. President for Agriculture.
President's Award--Brandon and Clint Strick-land, Salemburg, N.C.
Outstanding Director--Tim Yarbrough, a Caswell County, N.C., tobacco grower and past president of TGANC.
Lifetime Century Member -- Richard Reich, N.C. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Services Assistant Commissioner, Reich retired at the end of February.
Extension Service Award--Hannah Burrack, N.C. Extension Service entomologist.
Farm Family of the Year--Rouse Ivey Family Farms, Duplin County, N.C.

The Tobacco Farm Life Museum presented two awards at its annual "Breakfast with the Commissioner" on the last day of the show:

Innovative Farmer of the Year--Justin and Holly Miller, Cherry Hill Farm, Advance, N.C.
Excellence in Agriculture--Bobby Wellons, Tobacco Marketing Specialist, USDA AMS, Princeton, N.C.

The North Carolina Department of Agriculture presented its export award during the Ag Development Forum on the second day of the show:

N.C. Exporter of the Year--Scott Farms of Lucama, N.C. Accepting the award was Linwood "Sonny" Scott Jr., president and co-owner of the farm.

The U.S. Tobacco Cooperative (USTC) introduced its new Chief Executive Officer:

Fulford

Robert B. Fulford Jr., whose appointment took place the week of the show. Fulford previously was Vice President of Leaf Operations for Reynolds American Inc. and previously held senior level positions with R.J. Reynolds and Brown and Williamson. "Robert has a track record of strong leadership, [which] combined with his deep industry knowledge, makes him uniquely qualified to lead USTC successfully into the future," said Andrew Shepherd, a Blackstone, Va., farmer and chairman of the USTC board. Ed Kacsuta, USTC's Chief Financial Officer, said Fulford is the best choice to lead the flue-cured cooperative. "He has been a successful executive, and more importantly, he's a great fit with our culture and core values. We're delighted that he has accepted the position." (Note: This piece appeared in slightly different form in an earlier edition.)

A disappearing breed? A burley grower and his crew in east Tennessee prepare a planter for the field in this photo from the TFN files. Attrition in the number of Volunteer State growers is likely, thanks to the loss of AOI contracts.

The world's number two leaf dealer, Alliance One International (AOI), has withdrawn from the American burley market, at least for 2018. In a statement provided to Tobacco Farmer Newsletter, the company said,

"With U.S. cigarette sales declining at a rate of 3% per year over the past three years and global cigarette sales following a similar trend, demand for the U.S. burley tobacco crop has declined as well. As a result, we made a difficult decision to not contract any burley tobacco this year. We understand the economic impact of that tobacco has on farmers and their local communities, and this decision was not a reflection of the farmers or their crop quality, but rather the change in global demand."

Editor's Note: I just have to think there is more to this than the declining market for tobacco products, although I don't doubt that it was a key factor. There might be some issues on the supply side affecting all burley buyers.

Excess production, for instance: Daniel Green, c.e.o. of Burley Stabilization Corporation (BSC), notes the current market environment for burley is very challenging. "In spite of the drastic declines in American Blend cigarette sales in recent years, growers have continued to produce burley because of the lack of alternative crops, resulting in oversupply," he says. "Tobacco dealers are generally very averse to holding any more inventories than necessary in the current climate."

And what about several developments on the national level?" Among them are the potential regulatory changes being considered by the FDA that might require tobacco to contain much less nicotine," says Green.

BSC is still working on its 2018 contracts, Green says, and will probably send letters to its members next week. "We will help them as much as we can."

There will definitely be a reduction in burley acreage this year. Will Snell, Kentucky Extension tobacco economist, estimated earlier in the year that the demand for 2018's

crop would be around 110 million pounds. "We could produce that much on 55,000 acres," says Green. "Last year, we planted 89,000 acres."

It looks that way to Tennessee Extension tobacco specialist Eric Walker as well. "It appears that we are looking at a planting cutback of at least one third, and that might be a conservative estimate," he says. "I am not aware of any buyers that might pick up the slack."

The hardest hit areas will probably be those near Hartsville, Tn., where AOI has operated its burley buying station. That would include Trousdale, Smith and Macon counties, all in Tennessee, and nearby Allen County, Ky. Note: Macon has been America's leading burley-producing county in recent years.

A state of shock for Tennessee growers: "It was like somebody just dropped a bomb," said Macon County grower Cynthia Jones, in an interview with the Macon County Times. "Nobody was expecting it. There was no warning. Everybody is devastated." The commissioner of agriculture took notice too. "It is heart-breaking to hear the stories of multi-generational operations being forced to shift production focus or cease operations entirely," said Tennessee Commissioner of Agriculture Jai Templeton in a statement. "Many are now facing difficult decisions that will affect their families."

The immediate impact of AOI's exit from burley will be much greater in Tennessee than Kentucky because AOI had already cut back on contracting in the Bluegrass state. "But this is a lessening of demand, so there will be increased competition among growers for the pounds that are out there," says Bob Pearce, Kentucky Extension tobacco specialist.

Farmers should emphasize quality to retain the contracts they have, says Pearce. "Some of the big [quality] concerns this year would be reducing foreign material in cured leaf and keeping pesticide residues in line with industry expectations."

A demonstrated willingness to participate in GAP as much as possible would probably be a good idea. "Getting involved with the GAP Certification program that is being rolled out could help show a commitment to the tobacco industry. But certification may not be feasible for every burley farmer," Pearce says.

In other tobacco news:

As expected, planting has begun in Florida and is expected to begin in Georgia soon after April 1. "Farmers here are preparing for tomato spotted wilt and black shank using all precautions available against them," says J. Michael Moore, Georgia Extension tobacco specialist who also handles tobacco Extension work in Florida.

In the Southside of Virginia, it's been wet and cool, so there has been very limited land preparation, says David Reed, Virginia Extension tobacco specialist. Fumigation has been delayed too, and some greenhouses haven't even been seeded yet. So, he doesn't expect much planting till the end of April or early May.

Virginia flue-cured plantings will definitely be down. "It will be across the board, maybe five percent and probably no more than 10 percent," says Reed.

GAP GROWER TRAINING EVENTS

Check with your local Extension Service office for further details.

All meetings listed here are free and presented in English

March 23, 9 a.m. Hoffman Building at Solanco Fairgrounds, Quarryville, Pa.
March 23, 1 p.m. Hoffman Building at Solanco Fairgrounds, Quarryville, Pa.
March 26, 6 p.m. Nelson County Extension Office, Bardstown, Ky.
March 27, 12 p.m. Po Boy's Restaurant, Douglas, Ga.
March 27, 6 p.m. Gallia County Extension Office, Gallipolis, Oh.
March 27, 6 p.m. Laurel County Extension Office, London, Ky.
March 28, 1 a.m. Milton Shetler Farm, Harned, Ky.
March 28, 9 a.m. Ivan Hoover Farm, Leitchfield, Ky.
March 28, 7 p.m. Southern Hills CTC, Georgetown, Oh.
March 29, 1 p.m. University of Kentucky, Lexington, Ky.
April 5, 6 p.m. New Deal Tobacco, Weston, Mo.

Worsening outlook for 2018: Workers set out flue-cured plants on the Kenneth Dasher farm near Live Oak, Fla., on March 22. Since then, the odds of a profitable crop have declined exponentially after China announced it may impose new tariffs on leaf imports (mostly flue-cured) from the U.S., just a few weeks after Alliance One International announced it will not buy American burley from this season's crop.

Who's the real casualty in the China/America trade war? Tobacco growers, it appears. On Wednesday, the P.R.C. announced new tariffs on U.S. tobacco and tobacco products. I haven't seen the documents yet, but according to wire reports, tariffs collected on our unmanufactured tobacco would rise from 10 percent to 35 percent, while tariffs on cigarettes and cigars would rise from 25 percent to 50 percent.

The impact of increased Chinese leaf tariffs will be almost entirely on flue-cured. China's leaf purchases from the United States are almost entirely flue-cured. Little if

any American burley is purchased, because Chinese cigarettes are almost all British blends, made up entirely of flue-cured tobac-co. Burley isn't needed ex-cept in a few American blend brands that China manu-factures for foreign visitors.

The biggest victim in all this may turn out to be the flue-cured cooperative in Ra-leigh, N.C. The U.S. Tobacco Cooperative has supplied much of the P.R.C.'s needs for American leaf since China first began purchasing leaf here in the mid-2000s. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but I would expect that a substantial fall in Chinese sales would be a catastrophe for USTC. But if anyone thinks I am wrong on that, feel free to email at chrisbickers@gmail.com.

I will have better information when I come to you again. I spent much of today trying contact my most reliable sources on international leaf trade, but couldn't reach any of them, as if they had all stayed home in shock. I will have more for you on the China question--and on Alliance One's decision to exit the burley market--in my next issue.

In other tobacco news....

Planting is on hold in North Carolina: Matthew Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist, says, "As far as I know, no tobacco has been planted in the state yet, but

many growers are ready. We have had some very cold weather at times and it would be risky to plant until you are sure it is over. I would think it will be around the middle of the month till planting gets go-ing, although there might be a few crops go in before that." The greenhouse sea-son went very well in N.C., and it appears there will be no shortage of plants.

PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS: On March 29, USDA issued its annual projection of the number of acres of tobacco that will be planted this season. I present the projection below, but it is based on a survey of farmers conducted in early March. That was before the AOI and China developments, which might well affect planting intentions. But we can consider this a starting point.

FLUE-CURED:

North Carolina--158,000 acres, down three percent.
Virginia--23,000 acres, up five percent.
South Carolina--13,000 acres, up eight percent.
Georgia--13,000 acres, up four percent.
All U.S.--207,000 acres, down one percent.

BURLEY:

Kentucky-- 57,000 acres, down 10 percent.
Tennessee--9,500 acres, down 21 percent.
Pennsylvania--4,400 acres, down two percent.
Virginia--1,100 acres, no change.
North Carolina--900 acres, no change.
All U.S--72,900 acres, down 11 percent.

FIRE-CURED:

Kentucky--12,000 acres, up four percent.
Tennessee--7,000 acres, down seven percent.
Virginia--280 acres, up four percent.
All U.S.--19,280 acres, acres, up slightly.

DARK AIR-CURED:

Kentucky--5,000 acres, down 17 percent.
Tennessee--1,600 acres. no change.
All U.S.--6,600 acres, down 13 percent.

SOUTHERN MARYLAND:

Pennsylvania (All)--1,600 acres, down 11 percent.

CIGAR FILLER:

Pennsylvania (All)--2,200 acres, up 22 percent.

Letter to the Editor

A farmer's opinion on why AOI abandoned U.S. burley

I can sympathize with the burley growers. It would be great to know if AOI's international burley purchases intentions are reduced. Like you, I think there is more to it. Just like the flue-cured purchases in the U.S., it is not that the demand is down-it is that it can be bought cheaper elsewhere in the world. Therefore, they do it without regard to the economic impact on U.S. growers. Basically, the tobacco companies and leaf dealers care more about the bottom line than they care about U.S. growers!

--Tom Blair, Farmer, Pittsylvania County, Va.

DATES TO REMEMBER:

The Georgia-Florida Tobacco Tour will take place June 11-13. A partial schedule follows-check here for more details as they are available. June 11, 7 p.m. Kick-Off Supper at Brown Lantern Restaurant, Live Oak, Florida. June 12, 7:30 a.m. Leave Live Oak, Fl., for farm visits. End in Tifton, Ga. June 13, 7:30 a.m. Leave Tifton, to visit the Bowen Farm of the Coastal Plain Experiment Station, Tifton, and farm locations near Douglas and Blackshear, Ga., ending in the late afternoon.

Spreading the word: Steve Troxler (shown here addressing the crowd at the N.C. State Fair a few years ago) and his staff at the N.C. Department of Agriculture worked tirelessly to make China tobacco a presence in N.C. What is he going to do now with leaf sales to China are in jeopardy? See his opinion piece below.

SIX STRONG OPINIONS ON CHINESE TARIFFS

Editor's note: I have received many good opinion pieces on the Chinese proposal to substantially increase tariffs on U.S. tobacco and tobacco products. And a few more on AOI's departure from the U.S. burley market. I have picked six that appear to me to "cover the waterfront." But if you have something to say, feel free to email it to me at the address above. 500 words or less if you can.--Chris Bickers

Market disruption may not last long.

Commissioner of Agriculture

We worked very, very hard to get China tobacco buyers to come to North Carolina. Now they have become our No. 1 export destination. And quite frankly, that hard work paid off. It stabilized the declining contracts that farmers were getting. The number one agricultural export now from North Carolina to China is tobacco, at $156.3 million. We value the trading relationships we have worked to build over the years, and we want to continue to strengthen these and other trade partnerships. I want to be part of the solution, and I am hopeful that none of this comes to fruition. USDA Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue noted that farmers are patriots--and that is true--but [patriots] still have to pay the bills...The uncertainty is what's driving them [tobacco farmers] nuts. This could not have happened at a worse time for North Carolina farmers, who are still dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Mathew and low commodity prices. We also have NAFTA negotiations ongoing and a Farm Bill in the works. We know there will likely be disruption for markets, but we hope it will be short-termed. We are going to have to wait it out. Nobody wins when you put a tariff on food.

--Steve Troxler, Commissioner, N.C. Department of Agriculture

Pointing fingers doesn't help.

Grower association leader

Agriculture is being dragged into this situation by the Chinese as a means of retaliation to try and assert political pressure. Since farmers and their leadership organizations do not have a direct seat at the table, we are somewhat disadvantaged. We have been relegated to a position in which we can only provide constant and accurate communications to our government leaders about the economic risks. In that process it is important that we maintain proper civility and professionalism in advocating for farmers' interests. Pointing fingers or calling either side bad names does not help advance our goals of emerging from this circumstance with market stability and perhaps even market growth. What matters most is that China represents an important customer and potential growth market for U.S. leaf. We need to be diligent in continuing to build that relationship based on trust and delivery of the worlds best premium tobacco. Our mission is to convince China that it needs our tobacco and to do everything we can to protect this highly valued relationship for the future.

--Graham Boyd, C.E.O., Tobacco Growers Association of N.C.

Is too much being made of this now?

A flue-cured grower

I am not turning a deaf ear to the possibility that American farmers may suffer because of tariffs that might be imposed on our leaf and manufactured products by the Chinese. But it seems to me that it will be a long way down the road before anything happens, because much negotiations will have to take place first. Too much is being made of this now, and I think it is in part because of opposition to President Trump. Where was this media when the last administration tried to exclude tobacco in the TPP? That would have had as much or more negative impact than the current tariff negotiations. In fact, the previous administration did more than try to exclude. It actually lead the successful effort to carve tobacco out of the TPP agreement.

--Clay Strickland, Tobacco Grower, Salemburg, N.C.

China has far more to lose from a trade war.

A tobacco economist

It is difficult to say how much the tariff increases will impact flue-cured exports to China. At this point they are prospective: They haven't been implemented yet pending the results of high level negotiations underway. Those negotiations need to address some serious trade and investment issues with China that have not been dealt with by prior administrations. Specific industries like flue-cured tobacco may be impacted if the negotiations are unsuccessful. But I believe that China has far more to lose from a trade war than the U.S., particularly if other countries like the Europeans also join in pressuring China on trade.

--Jim Starkey, retired USDA economist

Incentivize companies to use domestic leaf.

A burley grower

With the current situation and outlook for American leaf, particularly burley, we need to push for great incentives to domestically produced tobacco products using domestic leaf only. We need a great tax incentive on the domestic tobacco used in the American supply chain, and a higher tariff on imports of leaf and foreign products. We need to take back our own markets, and the only way we can is if we incentivize the tobacco companies to use domestic leaf to the point it is more competitive against foreign producers. The quota system on tobacco tariffs needs to be renegotiated as it is highly outdated at this point. Tobacco farmers will have to band together in this and bombard our politicians with mail until we see the changes needed to protect our industry. We must let all politicians know of the economic impacts if we quit growing tobacco, and how it would also affect the supply and demand balance of other crops as tobacco farmers continue to exit and enter other ventures. At least this is my opinion.

--R. Wurth, burley grower, Lansing, N.C

China tariffs proposed, not enacted.

An equipment manufacturer

It is important to point out that, though PRC has "proposed" the tariffs you mention, they are yet to be "enacted." The difference between proposed vs. enacted is an important distinction, as is President Trump's proposal to double down with an additional 100 B of tariffs on Chinese goods. The odds are both sides are blustering

ahead of what may likely be protracted negotiations. It is important to remember that Trump has a long history of making inflammatory statements before actually backing down, or even reversing course, following face-to-face discussions with his avowed "adversaries." The prudent thing for FCV farmers to do appears to be to wait and see, while holding their course. I also have some comments regarding Tom Blair's letter. Tom appears correct in his assessment that demand for FCV remains strong, as well as the fact that companies and leaf merchants will seek to buy tobacco at the best price on the global market. He is also correct in saying it's all about the bottom line. This comes as no surprise. All business people seek the best price, including farmers and agricultural equipment manufacturers. The trick is to balance price versus value. Tobacco company executives routinely tell me their shareholders expect them to buy lesser grades at the best price on the global market. In addition, they say that the United States offers the only reliable supply of the high grades of FCV they must have to make their blends. At LONG, we face the same issue of balancing price and value. When we seek steel products, we solicit quotes from numerous suppliers. We then go with the ones that offer the lowest price. With steel, we are comparing apples to apples. However, when it comes to other barn components (like motors, fans, and burners) we seek single source quotes from only the manufacturers that offer the highest quality of those type components, regardless of price. This way, we can maintain our firm's well-earned reputation for building the highest quality barns. Some farmers go with cheaper barns, some stick with ours. It's like everything in life, one gets what one pays for.

--Robert H. Pope, Sr., Long Equipment Mfg. Co.

In other tobacco news...

RECENT APPOINTMENTS IN TOBACCO

There are several new faces in state and Extension tobacco work thanks to recent appointments. Among them:...Jewel Bronaugh has been appointed Virginia Commissioner of Agriculture by Governor Ralph Northam. Bronaugh comes to the


	Bronaugh


Hansen

post from Virginia State University (VSU), where she was Executive Director to VSU's Center for Agricultural Research, Engagement and Outreach. She had earlier been Dean of VSU's College of Agriculture. A native of Petersburg, Bronaugh is a graduate of James Madison and Virginia Tech Universities...Zach Hansen has been named the new Extension plant pathologist for tobacco in Tennessee. Stationed in Knoxville, he is a graduate of Clemson and Cornell universities. His short-term goals are to develop new programs for control of frogeye leafspot and black shank. Besides tobacco, he is also responsible for Extension pathology work on specialty crops....Kaleb Rathbone has been appointed director of the N.C. Department of Agriculture Research Stations Division. Since 2010, he has been superintendent of


	Rathbone

the Mountain Research Station in Waynesville. Rathbone is a native of Haywood County, where he grew up working on his family farm, raising cattle and growing tobacco. He earned his bachelor's degree in soil science and a master's degree in agriculture and natural resources management from the University of Tennessee at nearby Knoxville. Rathbone began as a summer worker at the Mountain Research Station in 1999. He has served in several different capacities at the station since that time.

DATES TO REMEMBER:

The Georgia-Florida Tobacco Tour will take place June 11-13. June 11, 7 p.m. Kick-Off Supper at Brown Lantern Restaurant, Live Oak, Florida. June 12, 7:30 a.m. Leave Live Oak, Fl., for farm visits. End in Tifton, Ga. June 13, 7:30 a.m. Leave Tifton, to visit the Bowen Farm of the Coastal Plain Experiment Station, Tifton, and farm locations near Douglas and Blackshear, Ga., ending in the late afternoon.

Transplanting gets under way across the tobacco belt.

Flue-cured growers in North Carolina have transplanted in the ballpark of 15 to 20 percent of the crop, says Matthew Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist. "That is probably all in the East and southeastern part of the state. Little has been planted in the Middle and Old Belts. It has been too cold and way too wet."

Part of the problem has been night-time temperatures that have often been close to freezing, says Vann. "We need night-time temperatures of 60+ degrees, and we have not been close to that. But there has been no flooding. We are still good on time: Even if we didn't get most of the crop out till late April it would not be a concern." He estimated that statewide, the crop is a week or two behind.

East of Wilson, N.C., the crop may be later than that, says a leaf dealer. "To my eyes, we are a good three weeks late," he told TFN. "I have seen some tobacco get frosted twice. It wasn't killed, but it was held back." A lot is going into the ground now. "We should see 425 to 450 million pounds total of American flue-cured."

This was the best transplant season in Georgia in recent memory, says J. Michael Moore, Georgia Extension tobacco specialist, and the crop looks good in Georgia and Florida. But in South Carolina, heavy wind and rains considerably slowed completion of tobacco setting, says Rusty Skipper, Extension agent in Horry County.

A few plants infected with tomato spotted wilt virus have turned up in Georgia, primarily in fields that were planted very early or in fields where Admire and Actigard were not used, Moore says. "There seems to be a lower presence of thrips this year."

Neonicotinoids are taking a lot of heat over alleged environmental problems, with a ban on outdoor spraying likely soon in the EU. If that sentiment spreads here, Admire could certainly be threatened. That would be a problem, Moore says, because none of the other alternatives are as effective in the suppression of tomato spotted wilt virus.

What effect will the exit of AOI have on the burley market? Daniel Green, c.e.o. of the Burley Stabilization cooperative, thinks acreage in Tennessee, the most affected state will at most be 10,000 acres and maybe less. For all burley states, he estimates 65,000 acres. Little burley has been transplanted so far.

Dark down: An early production estimate of the 2018 fire-cured crop provided by Hail & Cotton leaf dealer indicated that about 50 million pounds will be the volume,1.5 million pounds less than a year ago. The acreage for this type is projected at 15,625, 1,000 acres less than last year. The same estimate for dark air-cured tobacco is 14 million pounds, about 1.2 million pounds less than in 2017. Acreage is projected down 14 percent--714 acres to 5,000.

The effect Chinese tariffs might have on American tobacco is very difficult to estimate, but whatever the effect, it won't be good, the dealer says. "Even if the tariffs are slow developing, they could cause us some losses just because of the uncertainty," he says. "The situation seems certain to benefit Brazil."

Speaking of Brazil...The current flue-cured crop, just harvested and now being marketed, appears to be heading to 1.28 million pounds, about 77 million pounds less that in 2017, according to the leaf dealer Hail & Cotton. Brazil also grows burley, and the current crop is estimated at 154 million pounds, down 24 million pounds from 2017.

DATES TO REMEMBER:

The Georgia-Florida Tobacco Tour will take place June 11-13, beginning with a 7 p.m. Kick-Off Supper at Brown Lantern Restaurant, Live Oak, Florida, June 11.

ADVERTISING

Young burley grows on a sunny day in a field near Cynthiana, Ky.

BURLEY GROWERS PICK UP THE PIECES

The threat of new Chinese tobacco tariffs may be gone--for now. A special envoy of China's President Xi Jinping said over the weekend that talks with U.S, officials ended with a pledge by both sides not to engage in a trade war, according to a Chinese news agency. The agency said China agreed to "meaningful increases in U.S. agriculture and energy exports," But tobacco was not specifically mentioned. Hopefully, that means no increases in tariffs on flue-cured exports, which is the type mainly imported by China.

But burley growers have had no relief from Alliance One International's (AOI's) decision to cease purchases of American burley. Eric Walker, Tennessee Extension specialist, says the big burley-producing counties of middle Tennessee -- Macon,Trousdale and Smith -- will clearly take a major hit. For the state as whole, he thinks we might possibly see an 80 percent crop, and it could certainly be smaller. The effect on burley plantings is still unclear, but no one doubts that Tennessee will be the state most affected.

It has been a wet season in Tennessee up till now, he says, though it dried in some parts the past week. Walker advises growers not to start (or resume) transplanting too soon, especially if you are planting strip-till or no-till. "It is especially easy to set no-till too soon. Give the ground an extra day or two to make sure it is ready."

There doesn't seem to be a groundswell of Tennesseans planning to plant tobacco without a contract. And there is no news of any auction warehouses springing up that might sell "wildcat" tobacco. There haven't been any auctions in Tennessee in a number of years.

Macon County has been the number one burley county in Tennessee since soon after the buyout. It probably still will be this year, but it is facing a big cut in contracts. "We had 5,000 acres last year," says Extension agent Keith Allen, who is stationed in the county seat of Lafayette. "I am going to guess we will have 3,000 to 4000 acres this year, maybe closer to 4,000 than three. But that may be too optimistic. It is very hard to put a handle on it."

Efforts are going on to get a new company to contract from Holder's Tobacco Warehouse in nearby Hartsville, Tn, which had served as AOI's burley receiving station in Tennessee. But so far, no candidate has emerged, says Allen.

Setting has started in Macon County but is not far along. It was slowed by spotty rains that were heavy in some spots Thursday and Friday, Allen says.

In Kentucky, farmers have had a slow start on transplanting. A challenging transplant production season was part of the reason, says Bob Pearce, Kentucky Extension tobacco specialist. "We had more issues in the greenhouse than normal, primarily pythium and rhizoctonia damping off."

By the end of the season, there should be enough plants to supply the full Kentucky crop, but some growers may not get plants at the time they prefer, Pearce adds. Few plants are ready now, but some setting has taken place in Kentucky, though at a very slow pace.

News from the Carolinas and Virginia from the USDA's Crop Progress and Conditions report for May 13:

--In South Carolina, transplanting was 94 percent complete by May 13. "With warmer-than-normal temperatures and dry conditions, tobacco is beginning to grow off well," says Extension agent Kyle Daniel in Georgetown County. But inadequate topsoil moisture has been a concern.

--In North Carolina, about 74 percent of the flue-cured crop had been transplanted by May 13. "Dry conditions are negatively affecting all crops, especially recently transplanted tobacco," says Don Nicholson, N.C. Department of Agriculture agronomist in the Coastal Plain. In Craven County in the east, warmer temperatures and lack of rainfall afforded opportunity for field work last week, says Mike Carroll. "Planting of corn and transplanting of tobacco are almost complete. In Granville County near Raleigh, "Transplanting continued with no problems reported so far other than being behind due to weather conditions earlier," says Paul Westfall, Granville County Extension.

--In Virginia, 37 percent of the flue-cured crop had been transplanted by May 13, compared to 18 percent of the burley crop and 20 percent of the small fire-cured crop. Extension agent Cynthia Gregg of Brunswick County in southeast Virginia says planting is going full swing and that tobacco there (mostly flue-cured) that has already been planted is coming along nicely.

DATES TO REMEMBER:

June 11-13, Live Oak, Fla. Georgia-Florida Tobacco Tour, beginning with a 7 p.m. Kick-Off Supper at Brown Lantern Restaurant, June 11.

PLEASE NOTE: I have a new email address both for the newsletter and for me. It is cebickers@aol.com. The old address (chrisbickers@gmail.com) is no longer functional. The telephone number remains the same--919 789 4631.--Chris Bickers

A no-till planter in action in south Central Kentucky. See story on conservation tillage below.

In Kentucky, burley growers are well on the way on transplanting, says Bob Pearce, Kentucky Extension tobacco specialist. "But we are slightly behind our normal schedule." The oldest fields are three to four weeks old. Some burley land is saturated but in other places it is pretty dry.

Conservation tillage continues to grow in popularity in Kentucky. "It may be

approaching 25 percent of the crop," says Pearce. There are several good advantages to conservation tillage. "But you have to remember that it requires a little higher level of management of the tobacco plus you have to manage the cover crop as well." The major benefit is improved conservation plus fewer trips across the field, he says. A special transplanter is needed, like the C&M Trium transplanter with a no-till option shown above.

In North Carolina, it has been rainy, especially in parts of the Old and Middle Belt. "Our research station at Oxford has had 10 inches of rain in the last few weeks," says Matthew Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist. "About 90 percent of the flue-cured crop has been transplanted." The last 10 percent will be a challenge.

In Virginia, there was extensive flooding in the Southside, says Lunenburg County Extension agent Lindy Tucker. "Tobacco and grass are growing." In the Southeast, Brunswick County Extension agent Cynthia Gregg said, "Flooding was an issue early in the county. Fields were flooded along with approximately 28 roads being

impassable. Several tobacco fields had some washes." Burley plantings for the state were estimated 58 complete, flue-cured 74 percent complete and fire-cured 63 percent complete.

The Georgia-Florida crop has been transplanted for about a month, says J. Michael Moore, Georgia Extension tobacco specialist, "Sucker control is beginning." Tomato spotted wilt has appeared. "But it looks like we are heading for an average year."...Moore believes that acreage in the two states is about like last year: 12,500 acres for Georgia, 1,250 acres for Florida.

ANOTHER APPOINTMENT IN TOBACCO

Jennifer Atkins has been named Marketing Specialist covering the Southside of Virginia for the Virginia Department of Agriculture. Her work subjects will include flue-cured and dark tobacco in the Southside, and also some work with burley growers in Southwest Virginia. A native of Danville, Va., and a graduate of Averett


	Jennifer Atkins

University and Green Mountain College, Atkins has most recently served as Agriculture Director for Tyton BioSciences in Danville. Atkins takes over the former post of Bill Scruggs, who is now Manager of VDACS Domestic Sales and Market Development in Richmond. He says he will still be involved with tobacco, but Jennifer will be the department's point person on leaf.

MORE GAP MEETINGS ON THE WAY

You are not yet done with GAP Connection meetings, but the remaining ones are strictly voluntary. From mid June to early August, GAP Connections will hold a series of 15 meetings to present information on safety and compliance. "This is a one-stop training offered to growers and workers," said Amy Rochkes, Training & Resource Coordinator with GAP Connections. "Workers can learn a great deal about safety and compliance in their native language (English and Spanish) directly from the professionals." There is no charge, but pre-registration is recommended. Visit www.gapconnections.com or call GAP Connections at (865) 622-4606. A tentative schedule follows:

Monday, June 18, Grower's Warehouse, Tifton, GA, 9 a.m.--12:30 p.m.
Wednesday, June 20, Safe Marketing, Mullins, SC, 9 a.m.--12:30 p.m.
Friday, June 22, Warren Farms, Newton Grove, NC, 9 a.m.--12:30 p.m. & 2 p.m.--5:30 p.m.
Monday, June 25, RC Commodities, Inc., Wilson, NC, 9 a.m.--12:30 p.m. & 2 p.m.--5:30 p.m.
Wednesday, June 27, Roberts Farm, Lawrenceville, VA, 9 a.m.--12:30 p.m. & 2 p.m.--5:30 p.m.
Friday, June 29, Richmond Farms, Leasburg, NC, 9 a.m.-12:30 p.m. & 2 p.m.---5:30 p.m.
Monday, August 6, Murdock Farms, Murray, KY, 9 a.m.-12:30 p.m. & 2 p.m.--5:30 p.m.
Wednesday, August 8, Harton Farms, Cadiz KY, 9 a.m.-12:30 p.m. & 2 p.m.--5:30 p.m.

DATES TO REMEMBER:

June 11-13, Live Oak, Fla. Georgia-Florida Tobacco Tour, beginning with a 7 p.m. Kick-Off Supper at Brown Lantern Restaurant, June 11.

A migrant crew tops a field of flue-cured tobacco near King in the Old Belt of North Carolina. File photo by editor Chris Bickers.

GEORGIA-FLORIDA: It has been wet in Georgia and Florida, but that hasn't stopped a few growers from beginning harvest. "It has just been on a small scale," said J. Michael Moore, Ga. Extension tobacco specialist. "I expect it to get going in earnest this week." The crop isn't pretty at this time. "The rain damaged the lower leaves," he said.

KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE: Kentucky scientists didn't finish planting their demonstration plots at the University research farm in Lexington until July 5. That was several days later than expected because of excess precipitation. "We have had too much rain on this farm," said Bob Pearce, Kentucky Extension tobacco specialist. There was 1.3 inches on Sunday (July 1) and a little more on Monday and Tuesday, making for a late crop. But UK didn't plant the last burley in the state. "We have a few farmers still planting. But the crop is pretty much set," said Pearce on July 7. "There has been heavy rain over many parts of the state, but it has been spotty. Topping is just beginning in some areas." Statewide, NASS reported that 16 percent of the crop had been topped, and two percent was in bloom. In neighboring Tennessee, meanwhile, NASS said five percent of the crop had been topped.

THE CAROLINAS: North Carolina/growers need more rain, said Matthew Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist. "Considering the stressors this crop has faced, it probably is better than it should be. The next 10 days will tell." Farmers, especially in the East, are well into sucker control. "A few growers have been harvesting for a week or two. That will pick up shortly." NASS reported that in South Carolina, 46 percent of the crop had been topped by July 9 and three percent had been harvested. Harvest will come later in the Piedmont. "Because of the weather, some farmers in the area were not able to transplant as early as they wanted to," said Vann. "An area along the Virginia border extending from Stokes to Granville counties got nine to 13 inches of rain in one week at the beginning of June. They got all their rain at once." Topping has started in almost all tobacco fields in Franklin County, N.C., north of Raleigh. "We are experiencing right much Granville wilt again in tobacco fields this year along with a little herbicide injury," said Charles Mitchell, Franklin County Extension agent. "There has also been a little wind damage to the tobacco crop."

VIRGINIA: Lunenburg County Extension agent Lindy Tucker said during the week of the Fourth that conditions had been dry for a few weeks following a wet early summer. "We received a good, much-needed rain Friday evening [July 6] that offered some relief from

the heat as well," said Tucker. "Tobacco is hold-ing," she added. In Greens-ville County, Extension agent Sara Rutherford said half the tobacco was flowering as of July 8. "Heading is anticipated in the next few days," she said. In Brunswick County, Ex-tension agent Cynthia Gregg said flue-cured pro-ducers were topping and applying sucker control. "A few have begun pulling lower leaves," she said.

CANADA: In Southern Ontario, most crops appeared to get off to a good start, according to a report from the Canadian Tobacco Research Foundation. The majority of the crop was planted in May, the report said, and cultivation began in mid-June. In the field, few problems have been reported except for some fumigant injury. Most growers will be topping soon.

APPOINTMENTS

Mitchell Richmond, who recently earned a doctorate in Integrated Plant and Soil Science from the University of Kentucky, has taken the position of team leader for the Canadian Tobacco Research Foundation, located in Tillsonburg. He replaces Dan Van Hooren, who retired. Richmond earned his bachelor's degree from Morehead State University in Kentucky.

DATES TO REMEMBER:

N.C. State will host two tobacco events in three consecutive days later this month. The first will be an:

Organic Cropping Systems Field Day, Monday, July 23, 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. at the Rob Glover Farm, 10762 Liles Rd., Bailey, in Nash County, N.C. The farm produces tobacco, sweet potatoes, tobacco transplants, sweet potato slips and broccoli.
The second will take place Monday 3:30 p.m. to 5 p.m. A Tobacco Curing Demonstration and UAV Diagnostic Overview will be held at Vick Family Farms, 11124 Christian Rd., Wilson.
The demonstration will be followed by a Reception from 5:30 pm to 7:30 p.m. at Wilson County Elks Lodge, 2814 Fieldstream Dr., Wilson, N.C. A cash bar will be open from 5:30 to 6 p.m., with food served around 6 p.m.
A tour breakfast will be served Tuesday morning, July 24, from 8:15 a.m. to 9 a.m. at the Oxford Tobacco Research Station, 901 Hillsboro St., in Oxford.
On Tuesday from 9 a.m. to 11:45 a.m., there will be a tour of the Oxford station departing from the Main Office Area at 9 a.m. Stops will include: sprayer cleanout/contamination issues, OVT/Minimum Standards program, drip irrigation demonstration, foliar fungicide efficacy trial, simulated drift of auxin herbicides, and herbicide screening evaluations followed by lunch on the grounds at 11:45 a.m.
The tour will depart Oxford at one and travel to the Upper Coastal Plain Research Station, 2811 Nobles Mill Pond Rd., Rocky Mount. ending with visits to Research Plots, including: Black Shank OVT, OVT/Minimum Standards, organic nitrogen source evaluation, legume cover crop demonstration, and entomology efficacy trials. It will adjourn at 5 p.m.
Read more at: https://tobacco.ces.ncsu.edu/2018/06/2018-ncsu-tobacco-tour/.

*Note: Hotels are available in North Raleigh (Crabtree Valley Mall area) and Oxford (I-85/Hwy 96 area) for those intending to stay in the area. Hotel blocks will not be reserved by NCSU.

The Kentucky Burley Tobacco Industry Tour will be held on August 13 and 14, starting at 1 p.m. on the 13th at the University of Kentucky Spindletop Research Farm in Lexington. On the 14th, the tour will travel to research and demonstration plots in Central Kentucky.

ADVERTISING

PLANTING NEARS END, JUNE 17

EAST TENNESSEE: The end of transplanting burley should come in the next few weeks. "We are not finished now but should be soon," says Don Fowlkes, manager of agronomy with Burley Stabilization Corporation in Greeneville. "As of Wednesday, we were about three fourths complete, which is a little behind the calendar." A wet May delayed it getting in the field. "But now it is growing off nicely in most cases." There should be enough plants to service all the remaining acreage. "But plant supply was questionable at one point." In the neighboring burley states, NASS estimated that 57 percent of the burley crop had been planted in western North Carolina and 81 percent in southwest Virginia by June 10.

SOUTH CAROLINA: Planting has been complete in for several weeks, says William Hardee, S.C. area Extension agronomy agent in Conway. "So far, the crop looks pretty good. Much of the crop has been laid by. Sucker control has begun. We have a good bit of tomato spotted wilt virus in some places but in others not so bad, along with some soilborne disease and water stress." All in all, at this point, a good crop should certainly be in reach as long as the weather cooperates, he says.

NORTH CAROLINA: In Lee County, the tobacco crop is coming on fast and looking good for the most part, says Zachary Taylor, County Extension agent, But spotty areas were lost or damaged due to drowning, he adds. In Franklin County, disease started showing up last week, says Charles Mitchell, County Extension agent. "We saw some TSW and Granville Wilt showing up in some fields."

BLACK PATCH: Fire-cured setting in western Kentucky and central Tennessee is probably 70 percent complete, while dark air-cured setting is about 75 percent, says Andy Bailey, K-T Extension dark tobacco specialist. There have been some major problems with pythium in the float beds and severe transplant shock in some fields where tender plants got very hot in dry conditions immediately after transplanting. "Those and other conditions lead to more hand resetting than we are accustomed to," says Bailey. "We got our first black shank samples confirmed this week on the earliest planted tobacco, which is about five to six weeks old." But none of these situations is bad enough that the crop can't grow out of it. The remainder of dark acres ought to be set by June 25, he says.

As everywhere else, acres are down in the Black Patch too, but not by too much, says Bailey. USST lowered contracts by about 14 percent, and American Snuff raised its contracts five to 10 percent.

The relatively new fire-cured variety, KT D17L appears to be doing well in its first full year in the field, says Bailey. It features the best available resistance to the two strains of black shank: 10 to Race 0 and 6 to Race 1.

Spread of dark types? There are persistent rumors that some farmers in central Tennessee are planting dark types on land that has not been in dark before, or at least not recently. But there is no information on how this tobacco will be marketed.

ANNOUNCEMENTS

Alexander "Sandy" Stewart of Carthage, N.C., has been appointed assistant commissioner of agricultural services for the N.C. Department of Agriculture. "With Dr. Stewart's extensive research background, I expect he will bring outside-the-box critical thinking skills to challenges


	Sandy Stewart

our industry faces," said Steve Troxler, N.C. Commissioner of agriculture. Stewart comes to the department from Dow-DuPont and its cottonseed business, Phyto Gen. From 2011 through 2017, Stewart served as director of the NCDA Research Stations Division. Prior to that, he was an Extension specialist with NCSU's Crop Science Department. Stewart worked a few years with AgriThority in Kansas City, Mo. And prior to that, he served for eight years as a cotton specialist with Louisiana State University. Stewart earned bachelors, masters and doctoral degrees from N.C. State University.

DATES TO REMEMBER:

June 21, 8 a.m. Springfield, Tn. -Tobacco, Beef and More Field Day. Highland Rim Center. Trade show begins at 8 a.m., and first field tours begin at 8:45 a.m. off Oakland Road, ending at 12:30 p.m., followed by a complimentary lunch. Contact: 615-382-3130.
July 23 8 a.m.-12 p.m. N.C. Organic Field Day, Nash County, N.C.
June 23-24 3-5 N.C. Tobacco Tour (Day One), Vick Farm, Nash County.
July 24, 8 a.m.-12 p.m. N.C. Tobacco Tour (Day 2 morning): Oxford Tobacco Research Station, 901 Hillsboro St, Oxford, N.C.
July 24, 2:30 p.m.-5 p.m. Upper Coastal Plain Research Station. N.C. Tobacco Tour (Day 2 afternoon), 2811 Nobles Mill Pond Rd, Rocky Mount, N.C.

The best of a bad-looking crop: Rob Glover of Bailey, N.C. stands in his best tobacco field on July 17. A hot dry summer has left much of the U.S. flue-cured crop in poor condition, but enough rain could still rescue it. You can see this field at the N.C. Organic Cropping Systems Field Day on July 23, beginning at Bailey. See below for details and for some of Glover's experiences growing organic.

USDA released its first estimate of 2018 tobacco production on July 12, based on early June surveying. The estimate covered flue-cured only and forecast this season's production at 432 million pounds, down six percent from 2017. Acreage was estimated at 204,500 acres, two percent below last year, while yield per acre was forecast at 2,111 pounds, down 88 pounds from a year ago. The majority of the crop was rated in good to fair condition. USDA said.

Among the individual states, USDA estimated production at: NC--down 7.5 percent at 331.8 million pounds. VA--down 4.3 percent at 48.4 million pounds. GA-no change at 26.25 million pounds change. SC--no change at 25.2 million pounds.

Progress reports from Extension workers in individual states.

NORTH CAROLINA (Flue): The crop in eastern North Carolina has been through a lot, thanks to a wet early-season and a prolonged hot, dry spell over the past month," says Matthew Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist. "We got some rain in places on July 17 and may get a little more Friday or Saturday. Every milliliter will be needed, and we need more."The lower stalk leaf is firing up fast east of Raleigh. "Farmers are hustling to get the lower stalk leaf off the stalk as soon as they can," Vann says. "You see farmers knocking off their bottom leaves with leaf removal equipment."That's probably a good idea. "Leaves grown under the conditions we've had could present market-ing challenges," One of the worst things about the weather in the Coastal Plain this year is that the transition from wet to extremely hot and dry took place almost overnight, Vann says.

NORTH CAROLINA (Burley): In the N.C. mountains, scattered thunderstorms brought significant rainfall to parts of the county the week ending on the July 15. But other parts remained dry. "There was some localized flash flooding," says Stanley Holloway, Yancey County Extension agent. "However, little to no crop damage occurred." Overall, the burley crop is looking pretty good, he says. But black shank is showing up in a few fields.

TENNESSEE: The dry spell has been less severe in much of east Tennessee than in N.C., says Don Fowlkes, manager of agronomy, Burley Stabilization Corporation. "We have been dry for the most part, but the crop has held on pretty well. Most--though not all--of the areasthat needed rain got it this week. The stand is not as good or as uniform as we would like but it is acceptable." The crop was late set, and the June heat made for stand losses and more resetting than normal. Now some is approaching topping. Fowlkes hopes topping will get done on time. On a crop like this, that will be important, he says. Farmers in east Tennessee appear to have reduced plant populations, he says. "The goal is to try to produce more red and reddish leaf."

VIRGINIA: In Appomattox County in the central district, farmers are hopeful for rain. "Tobacco farmers continue to work on weed control, and many will be topping by the middle to end of the week," says Bruce Jones, county Extension agent. "Irrigation will start on tobacco as well if rainfall is not received." In the southeast, Brunswick Extension agent Cynthia Gregg says flue-cured tobacco is being pulled and cured now. "We are in need of rain." In southern Virginia, Pittsylvania Extension agent Stephen Barts says drought conditions continue to worsen, and row crops are suffering in the high heat conditions.

OTHER STATES: In South Carolina, 60 percent of the crop is topped and 10 percent is harvested. In Georgia, 92 percent is topped and 35 percent is harvested. In Kentucky, 12 percent is topped and 33 percent is blooming.

What's the one indispensable step to take when you start out in organic tobacco? "Make sure you have enough organic land for rotation," says Rob Glover, who farms in Bailey, N.C. That can be a real challenge, but Glover has found enough suitable land for his 40 acres of organic as well as 40 of PRC. He rotates tobacco with fescue and wheat, sweet potatoes, and wheat and soybeans. "Fescue fits in well behind tobacco," says Glover, who grew his first organic tobacco in 2012.

DATES TO REMEMBER:

N.C. State will host two tobacco events in three consecutive days later this month. The first will be an:

Organic Cropping Systems Field Day, Monday, July 23, 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. at the Rob Glover Farm (see above), 10762 Liles Rd., Bailey, in Nash County, N.C. The farm produces tobacco, sweet potatoes, tobacco transplants, sweet potato slips and broccoli.
The second will take place Monday 3:30 p.m. to 5 p.m. when a Tobacco Curing Demonstration and UAV Diagnostic Overview will be held at Vick Family Farms, 11124 Christian Rd., Wilson.
The demonstration will be followed by a reception from 5:30 pm to 7:30 p.m. at Wilson County Elks Lodge, 2814 Fieldstream Dr., Wilson, N.C. A cash bar will be open from 5:30 to 6 p.m., with food served around 6 p.m.
A tour breakfast will be served Tuesday morning, July 24, from 8:15 a.m. to 9 a.m. at the Oxford Tobacco Research Station, 901 Hillsboro St., in Oxford.
On Tuesday from 9 a.m. to 11:45 a.m., there will be a tour of the Oxford station departing from the Main Office Area at 9 a.m. Stops will include: sprayer cleanout/ contamination issues, OVT/ Minimum Standards program, drip irrigation demonstration, foliar fungicide efficacy trial, simulated drift of auxin herbicides, and herbicide screening evaluations followed by lunch on the grounds at 11:45 a.m.
The tour will depart Oxford at 1 p.m. and travel to the Upper Coastal Plain Research Station, 2811 Nobles Mill Pond Rd., Rocky Mount. ending with visits to Research Plots, including: Black Shank OVT, OVT/Minimum Standards, organic nitrogen source evaluation, legume cover crop demon-stration, and entomology efficacy trials. It will adjourn at 5 p.m.
Register for both events at tobacco.ces.ncsu.edu/2018/06/2018-ncsu-tobacco -tour/.

*Note: Hotels are available in North Raleigh (Crabtree Valley Mall area) and Oxford (I-85/Hwy 96 area) for those intending to stay in the area. Hotel blocks will not be reserved by NCSU.

The Kentucky Burley Tobacco Industry Tour will be held on August 13 and 14, starting at 1 p.m. on the 13th at the University of Kentucky Spindletop Research Farm in Lexington. On the 14th, the tour will travel to research and demonstration plots in Central Kentucky.

You saw a lot of this in eastern N.C. in July: A farmer knocks trashy bottom leaves off his flue-cured using a mechanical delugger during the hot, dry spell in July. "In a year like this one, it was a good tool to have," says Bryant Lancaster of Lancaster Farms near Stantonsburg, N. C. "It eliminates a good portion of trashy lower leaves that we had because of the bad weather." But since this picture was taken on July 17, Lancaster's farm has gotten considerable rain.

Harvest is going on at full speed in Florida and Georgia, although farmers are having to work around showers, says J. Michael Moore, Georgia Extension tobacco specialist. Floridians may be finished by the end of next week. Georgians aren't that far along, although Moore says that harvest of the crop at the research station in Tifton should be finished next Wednesday. The availability of labor has been a major problem for Georgia-Florida tobacco this year, he says.

How far has harvest gotten in the flue-cured states? According to the USDA agency National Agricultural Statistics Service, through July 29: Georgia farmers had harvested 54 percent of its crop; South Carolina, 21 percent, North Carolina (flue), 17 percent harvested, and Virginia (flue), 11 percent. No burley had been harvested by that date, NASS said, but Kentucky growers have topped 33 percent of their burley and Tennessee 50 percent.

The marketing season got off to an encouraging start when U.S. Tobacco Cooperative began taking deliveries at its Georgia marketing center in Nashville last week. "All stalk positions were represented, and overall, the deliveries look pretty good.," says Moore.

Recent rains have improved conditions in eastern North Carolina. "But there are isolated areas that have received too much rain, negatively affecting tobacco," says Don Nicholson, N.C. Department of Agriculture regional agronomist. North of Raleigh, Franklin County is finally receiving much-needed rains, says Charles Mitchell, Franklin County Extension agent. "But for some fields of tobacco, it is too late," he added.

The certainties about burley marketing in 2018, according to Don Fowlkes, agronomy manager for the Burley Stabilization Corporation. "Red-leaf style burley tobacco is in

demand in the market-place. Quality is the key to having a product that buyers want. Yield is the key to being profitable, and both quality and yield are necessary for staying in business."

When should you cut burley? Cutting early sacri-fices yield. Cutting late sacrifices quality and fre-quently yield. "In most years for most varieties, early means before three to four weeks after topping and late means more than five to seven weeks after," says Fowlkes. Five weeks is a reasonable average target. "Certainly, let most crops stand at least four weeks, Fowlkes says.

The best dark tobacco crop since 2014? Despite a shortage of plants, the dark tobaccos of western Kentucky and Tennessee are looking very good right now, and a better than average yield seems quite possible, says Andy Bailey, Extension dark tobacco specialist. It has benefited by timely rains.

About 70 percent of the crop has been topped as of the end of July. Some dark tobacco that is grown for cigar wrapper has been harvested, but for most other plantings, harvest is at least two weeks away.

Dicamba problem in dark: At least 300 acres of dark have been contaminated by dicamba in fields close to dicamba-resistant soybeans. Bailey says this tobacco is unmarketable. He

thinks the problem was not so much due to physical drift by the chemical but rather to temperature inversions from dicamba applica-tions made to soybeans in late June and July.

A new foliar spray for target spot: According to California manufacture Marrone Bio, Stargus Biofungicide provides target spot control when applied at a rate of two to three quarts per acre, by itself or in a tank mix with Quadris. It is also registered for blue mold control, sprayed on at a rate of four quarts per acre as soon as symptoms appear. It has a short re-entry time of four hours and is approved for use on organic tobacco.

DATES TO REMEMBER:

August 9, 5:30 p.m. Dark Tobacco Twilight Tour at the West Farm, Murray State University, in Murray, Ky.

August 13, 1 p.m. The Kentucky Burley Tobacco Industry Tour will be held on August 13 and 14, starting at 1 p.m. on the 13th at the University of Kentucky Spindletop Research Farm in Lexington. On the 14th, the tour will return to Spindletop at 8 a.m. and travel to research and demonstration plots in Central Kentucky.

Opening sales took place this week for most of the flue-cured auction warehouses, and the prices offered were not encouraging. Best quality lugs generally about $1.20 per pound. Contrast that to the scene in this photo, taken at a sale at the Old Belt auction in Rural Hall (near Winston-Salem, N.C.) in the relatively "good old days" of 2012. Best quality lugs brought around $1.60 at auction at the first sale that year. Identifiable along the line are sales leader Bill Jessup (left), auctioneer Chuck Jordan (second from left) and Brent Tilley of Vaughn Tobacco (right). The Old Belt warehouse holds its first sale next Tuesday at 10 a.m.

THIS IS A GOOD FLUE-CURED CROP, says Rick Smith, president of Independent Leaf Tobacco, a leaf dealer in Wilson, N.C. "The tobacco coming out of the barn looks better than expected. There is some very useable downstalk tobacco in it."

Unfortunately, that was not the message the market was sending when auction warehouses opened on August 22. One very disgruntled warehouseman (who asked to remain anonymous), said buyers clearly don't want to buy lugs from this crop. "The highest price for lugs I saw was $1.20, and that was for really good leaf. Plain X tobacco was bringing around 80 cents."

Is China buying or not? The impression among dealers was that the Chinese have decided to honor their contracts with US Tobacco Cooperative and some individual growers it has previously contracted with. But they have been lead to expect that there will be no other Chinese purchases of U.S. flue-cured this year.

First it was wet in N.C. Then it was dry. Now it is too wet again. "For the past three or four weeks, it seems we have always had rain (in eastern N.C.)," says Matthew Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist. "It has slowed harvest because we can't get into the field." Also,

the rain has caused the crop to "green up.""It is going to be a challenge to get what we need to get done in August. The crop might come off all at one time. But there is time to finish what we need to finish if it will stop raining. We need drying time. All told, we still have the possibility of a good crop."

Most growers in the East are probably about one to three weeks behind schedule, says Vann. In the N.C. Piedmont, rain caused more of a delay in transplanting, so farmers there may be more like two to four weeks behind. Even though there have been several years recently when the first killing frost was later than usual, you have to assume that first frost will fall around October 10. A crop that is still green at that time could be a big problem.

It's been wet in Kentucky too. "There's been a long stretch of unsettled weather," says Bob Pearce, Kentucky Extension tobacco specialist. "We have had a lot of rain. It hasn't been solid--more off and on--but it has been enough to slow our harvest. And we have had so much humidity that it may compromise the curing." He recommends managing your cure for good airflow and especially get a good spacing of stalks on the stick. "And do everything you can to get the crop harvested as quickly as possible."

County and regional reports:

In Southeast N.C., the tobacco crop has by and large benefited from recent rainfall, says Tyler Whaly, N.C. Department of Agriculture agronomist for the region including Sampson County. "[It] has allowed for additional growth and leaf expansion of middle and upperstalk positions." Now, soilborne and foliar diseases have become a major issue due to extended periods of leaf wetness and additional pathogen movement through the soil. "Most growers are behind in harvesting. It will be very challenging to save the crop due to limited barn space and rapid deterioration in the field."

In the N.C. Piedmont, the tobacco crop is highly variable based on timing of rain, says Brandon Poole, NCDA agronomist for Region 8 which includes Guilford, Granville and other Piedmont counties. "Tobacco that was planted on time seems to be the best in the region for yield and quality. The late-planted crop is short, and quality is poor on lower stalk position leaves, but recent rainfall has helped in filling out upperstalk leaves"...In general, the

crop looks good in Lee County, N.C. (south-west of Raleigh), says Zachary Taylor, county Extension agent. "[But] some fields greened up with recent rains and will be very late ripening. Frost may be a concern before all of the crop is in the barn."

In the Piedmont of Virginia, dark tobacco harvest in Appomattox County is under way on many farms. "It is progressing well between the rainy days," says Bruce Jones, Extension tobacco agent. "Topping continues on burley."

In Western N.C., topping is beginning on the burley crop. "Drier weather was a welcome change," says Stanley Holloway, Yancey County Extension agent, near Asheville. "Most areas received only a trace to 0.25 inches of rain last week. Temperatures were cooler with highs mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80's and lows mainly in the mid to upper 50s."

USDA Crop Report: Flue-cured down, burley way down. The first projection of the full 2018 crop by USDA agency National Agricultural Statistics Service's (NASS) indicated that burley production in the United States as of August 1 is expected to total 133 million pounds, down 17 percent from last year. Flue-cured tobacco production is expected to total 430 million pounds, down seven percent from 2017. Among the types and producing states:

FLUE-CURED: North Carolina--331.8 million pounds, down 7.47 percent. Virginia--50.6 million pounds, no change. Georgia--26.25 million pounds, no change. South Carolina--21.6 million pounds, 14.2 percent.

BURLEY: Kentucky--104.5, down 19 percent. Tennessee--15.3 million pounds, down 15 percent. Pennsylvania--10 million pounds, down 3.3 percent. Virginia--1,800 million pounds, down 18.1 percent. North Carolina--1.36, down 5.5 percent.

FIRE-CURED: 54.7 million pounds down 7.9 percent.

DARK AIR-CURED: 19.6 million pounds, down 2.7 percent.

SOUTHERN MARYLAND: 3,360 million pounds, 22.2 percent.

PENNSYLVANIA SEEDLEAF: 5.76 million pounds, up 3.3 percent.

How much flue-cured has been harvested? USDA estimates that by August 20, 77 percent of the Georgia crop had been harvested compared to 45 percent in South Carolina; 41 percent in North Carolina crop, and 39 percent in Virginia. Florida wasn't included but it was presumed 100 percent.

ADVERTISING

Our first sale will take place August 28 at 10 a.m.

This tobacco was offered for sale in a live auction last Wednesday at the American Tobacco Exchange in Wilson, N.C. Sales continue today at ATE, Horizon Tobacco and Big M Warehouse, all in Wilson. Live auctions are conducted at Old Belt Sales in Rural Hall, N.C., on Tuesdays.

The market for flue-cured lugs has improved slightly in the last two weeks. The ware-housemen I have talked to are confident that all sound tobacco that is offered at auction, including lugs, will find a buyer. "But it will be at a price," Kenneth Kelly of Horizon Tobacco in Wilson, N.C., told me. "This season all our buyers are very price conscious."

Two warehouses--Horizon and American Tobacco Exchange--are offering live auctions every Wednesday till the end of the season. Horizon is also offering silent auctions, as is Big M Warehouse of Wilson. Why? "We decided to meet the demand of the farmers," says Kelly. "We are offering live and silent auctions now, and we will see which commands the most interest over the season." He thinks some of the desire by farmers for a live auction is based on sentiment, on getting back to the old days. Others have said the live auctions are more

transparent. But Kelly finds this belief unconvincing. "Silent auc-tions are just as transparent. If one of my customers wants to know something about the sale, all he has to do is ask me."

How long will the flue-cured auction season last? In the last few years, Horizon has held its last sales in November, but Kelly is worried that this crop won't last that long. "It is ripening at a very fast pace here (around Wilson)."

In the Piedmont of North Carolina, the crop seems to be improving at the Old Belt Sales warehouse in Rural Hall near Winston-Salem. "We had a good sale Tuesday," said Dennis White, owner of the warehouse. "Throwaway lugs were still bringing 80 cents a pound. But lugs with color and body were selling for $1.10 a pound, and if they were orange, $1.25 to $1.30." A few leaf grades were sold at $1.90. "They were sold too early. Those grades will bring more later." A few cutter grades went for $1.75 to $1.80. Old Belt Sales will conduct an auction every Tuesday for the duration of the season.

Reports from the field

Coastal Plain: Growers are pushing to get tobacco out of the field in Robeson County, says Mac Malloy, Extension agent. "Conditions remain dry and rain would be welcome," he says...In the counties around Raleigh, Smithfield and Wilson. Farmers are also in need of a rain, says Don Nicholson, NC Department of Agriculture agronomist. "Tobacco growers are attempting to fill every available curing barn to save as much of the crop as possible," he says...In Craven County, harvest is proceeding quickly due to rapid leaf decay, says Mike Carroll, Extension agent. He earlier reported "wildly variable" crop conditions. "As example, we have fields of tobacco completely harvested, yet there are fields yet to be harvested at all.

Piedmont: The area around Winston-Salem could produce a very good quality crop, says Dennis White [see above], but it may not be real heavy. "We had good weather most of the season, but recently we have had 10 days of 90-degree weather. So it may not weigh a lot. But

it looks to be on the overripe side"...Close to Virginia, soil moistures have increased thanks to recent rainfall, says Caswell County Extension agent Joey Knight. Caswell borders Virginia and is quite close to Danville. Tobacco growers are getting only light weights on tobacco that was planted late. "Early planted tobacco [however] is looking great with good yields. The X and C grades are already harvested," Knight says... In the Virginia Piedmont, Bruce Jones, Extension agent in Appomattox County, says that much of the county received in excess of one inch of rainfall on September 1. "This week will be busy with dark tobacco harvesting and curing," he says.

Mountains: Torrential rains in some areas of Smyth County [Va.] and surrounding counties have resulted in isolated damage to rural roads and fields, says Andy Overbay, Extension agent. "Continued wet weather has damaged the [burley] tobacco crop, but with harvest fast approaching those issues should be contained"... Rainfall from one weekend storm in late August ranged from four to eight inches, says Stanley Holloway, Yancey County [N.C.] agent. "Limited field work [was done] due to wet soils. Crop stage and conditions vary incredibly due to total accumulation of rainfall over the past few weeks." But a relatively dry week through September 2 allowed for some progress in the field.

How much flue-cured has been harvested? As of September 4, USDA estimated that 91 percent of the Georgia crop, 70 percent of the South Carolina crop, 58 percent of the North Carolina crop and 58 percent of the Virginia crop had been harvested.

And burley: 41 percent of the Kentucky crop, 35 percent of the Tennessee crop and 19 percent of the North Carolina crop had been harvested. In Pennsylvania, where three types--including burley--are grown, 69 percent of all types had been harvested. In Kentucky, 84 percent of the Kentucky crop had been topped.

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