Tobacco Farmer Newsletter

There's been some early black shank in Georgia (above) but so far it has been manageable, in part because of adoption of a three-pronged control strategy. "Our growers have done a good job of finding resistant varieties and then implementing the three-step control program: Orondis and Ridomil in the transplant water, Presidio at first cultivation and Ridomil at layby cultivation,"says J. Michael Moore, Extension tobacco specialist. "It should be followed on any farm that has a history of black shank."

HARVEST BEGINS IN THE DEEP SOUTH

FLUE-CURED

Harvest has begun in Florida and Georgia. "But just by a few farmers," says Moore. "It will get going in earnest starting next week." It appears to be a good crop so far, he says. "We are finishing topping and sucker control now." Plantings in Georgia and Florida appear to have been reduced 30 to 35 percent, says Moore. "We might wind up with acreage in the 8,250 acre range," he says. He doesn't see much interest in growers in planting beyond their contracts.

South Carolina: Farmers haven't started harvesting. "Normally, we would expect to start by the first week of July but that isn't happening this year," says William Hardee, S.C. area Extension agronomy agent. "The crop is just not

ready. Due to the dry weather, we are a little behind schedule, and in some areas, we have seen some premature flowering." Scattered thunder storms accom-panied by winds blew down tobacco, mainly in the GreenSea/ Nichols area. "Wounded roots opened the door for serious bacterial wilt infestation," says Hardee. Note: Plantings are definitely down in South Carolina. Hardee says acreage--which was around 14,000 acres last season--could be as low as 10,000 this year.

North Carolina: Farmers have experienced extreme heat and drought since early May. "But it's been broken by extreme rainfall in short spurts or isolated thunderstorms that build almost out of nowhere," says Matthew C. Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist. "All things considered, we really do have a fine crop with a lot of potential remaining ahead of us."

Rain is in the forecast, and farmers will gladly take it, says Vann. "I'd argue that a good soaking rain that gives us an inch or a little more will finish pushing most of this crop into flowering.

There have been few widespread issues in N.C. There was some sand blasting and hail early on that resulted in replanting. "Since then, the major issue has been excessive rain, felt hardest in parts of eastern Wake County," Vann says.

Virginia: In Greensville County, topping will reportedly start soon. First observations of hornworm eggs and larvae feeding on tobacco leaves were made last week.

BURLEY AND DARK

Kentucky: Heavy ongoing rains in June in western Kentucky damaged burley and dark. "One farmer nearby got nine inches of rain in eight days," says Rod Kuegel of Owensboro. "We didn't get quite that much but I expect to have to bush hog some

tobacco, which is something we rarely do." For the area, he thinks there has already been a 20 percent loss.

Tennessee: All but eight percent of the crop had been set by June 30. Four percent had been topped. In Macon County near Nashville, an overa-bundance of rain and storms have halted set-ting and all field work. In Cheatham County, also near Nashville, very little field work could be done last week until Friday or Saturday due to pop-up thunderstorms with heavy rains. In Robertson County, north of Nashville, angular leafspot has appeared in dark fire-cured on several farms.

North Carolina: 91 percent of the burley crop has been planted. Drier weather conditions last week allowed growers to get into fields in Yancey County in the mountains.

DATES TO REMEMBER

July 22, 8:30 a.m. N.C. Organic Commodities Field Day. Ends 12:30 p.m., followed by lunch. Cunningham Research Station, Kinston, 200 Cunningham Rd., Kinston, N.C.
July 23, 9 a.m. Tobacco Tour-Field Day, Upper Coastal Plain Research, 2811 Nobles Mill Pond Rd., Rocky Mount, N.C. Ends approximately 3 p.m. Register at ncsu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_ex791rQ0C8LZ5dj.
August 13 9 a.m. The Kentucky Burley Tobacco Industry Tour will be held at the University of Kentucky Spindletop Research Farm in Lexington. It will end about 3 p.m. Note: The event will last one day only.

GAP Farm Safety & Compliance Events:

GAP Connections will host a number of Farm Safety & Compliance Training Events this summer. Attendees will rotate through interactive stations as they learn about safety and compliance topics required by the GAP Program. Registration is free except that at some, there will also be an opportunity to earn CPR & AED certification during the events at a registration fee of $25. You must pre-register. For more details, visit www.gapconnections.com or call GAP Connections at (865) 622-4606. Dates and places appear below.

July 9, 10 a.m. New Holland, PA. English. Free.
July 11, 9 a.m. Wylliesburg, VA. English. Includes CPR Certification(Growers only). Registration $25.
July 11, 9 a.m. Wylliesburg, VA. English / Spanish. Free.
August 5, 5 p.m. Danville, KY. English. Includes CPR Certification(Growers only). $25.
August 5, 5 p.m. Danville, KY. English. Free.
August 7, 9 a.m. Hardinsburg, KY. English. Free.
August 7, 9 a.m. Hardinsburg, KY. English. $25.
August 7, 2 p.m. Hardinsburg, KY. English. Free.
August 7, 2 p.m. Hardinsburg, KY. English. Includes CPR Certification(Growers only). $25.
August 9, 9 a.m. Gallatin, TN. English. Free.
August 9, 9 a.m. Gallatin, TN. English. Includes CPR Certification (Growers only). $25.
August 9, 2 p.m. Gallatin, TN. English. Free.
August 9, 2 p.m. Gallatin, TN. English. Includes CPR Certification (Growers only). $25.

A flue-cured field in Wilson, N.C.

USDA PROJECTION:

Flue-cured production in the United States has been projected at 320 million pounds by USDA. That would be five percent less than in 2018 and the lowest production for this type on record. Area harvested, projected at 159,000 acres, is 20 percent below last year and 6,000 acres less than USDA projected in March. Yield for the 2019 flue-cured is forecast at 2,015 pounds per acre, 303 pounds above last year. USDA will estimate production of burley and other types and flue-cured again in August.

Field reports:

FLUE-CURED

In Virginia, in Greensville County in the southeast corner of the state, almost all tobacco has been topped, the county agent reports. Two rain events last week brought much needed moisture. In neighboring Brunswick County, storms last weekend brought wind and spotty showers. The rain helped, but more is needed

In North Carolina, a good rain is also needed in much of the Piedmont. The high temperatures and humidity are leading to stress, says Paul Westfall, Extension agent in Granville County. "Tobacco is looking good in some areas, not so good in others." Topping and sucker control is under way, he adds.

In South Carolina, 100 percent of the crop has been planted, 45 percent has been topped, but none harvested. In Georgia, all has been planted, 68 percent has been topped and roughly seven percent has been harvested.

BURLEY AND DARK

In Kentucky, the crop is 95 percent set with 12 percent in bloom.

In Tennessee, all but seven percent of the crop has been set, and nine percent topped. In Cheatham County, just west of Nashville, pop up showers, producing heavy rain at times, reportedly kept most or the field work to a minimum last week. Some tobacco was topped and sucker control applied. In Wilson County, just east of Nashville, spotty rains across the county caused feast for some growers and famine for others. "Feast folks cannot get field work done, and famine folks need rain," said Extension agent A. Ruth Correll.

In Virginia, Grayson County in the Blue Ridge mountains had yet to see a significant dry spell of the type you expect most years by July 8. But it reportedly has not been excessively wet, meaning that growing conditions have been good.

In western North Carolina: 96 percent of the burley crop had been set by July 8. Weather conditions last week were reportedly on the warm side with slightly above average temperatures. Scattered rain showers and afternoon thunderstorms limited some field activities in Yancey County, on the Tennessee line--most areas receiving between 1.75 to three inches of rain for the week.

In other tobacco news:

Another foreign competitor! The southwest African country of Namibia is cooperating with a Chinese company in a proposed joint venture to create a 10,000-hectare tobacco-producing operation in the country's northeast. To put that in perspective, that level of plantings would be about equal to what South Carolina and Georgia together planted last year. The venture has obtained some but not all of the government approvals it will need for the project, which will also produce corn. The type to be grown has not been specified but is assumed to be flue-cured, since that is what China has typically imported. Whatever the type, the tobacco will be 100 percent exported to China.

DATES TO REMEMBER

July 22, 8:30 a.m. N.C. Organic Commodities Field Day. Ends 12:30 p.m., followed by lunch. Cunningham Research Station, 200 Cunningham Rd., Kinston, N.C.
July 23, 9 a.m. Tobacco Tour-Field Day, Upper Coastal Plain Research, 2811 Nobles Mill Pond Rd., Rocky Mount, N.C. Ends approximately 3 p.m. Register at ncsu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_ex791rQ0C8LZ5dj.
August 13, 9 a.m. The Kentucky Burley Tobacco Industry Tour will be held at the University of Kentucky Spindletop Research Farm in Lexington. It will end about 3 p.m. Please note: The event will last one day only.

GAP Farm Safety & Compliance Events:

August 5, 5 p.m. Danville, KY. English. Includes CPR Certification (Growers only). $25.
August 5, 5 p.m. Danville, KY. English. Free.
August 7, 9 a.m. Hardinsburg, KY. English. Free.
August 7, 9 a.m. Hardinsburg, KY. English. $25.
August 7, 2 p.m. Hardinsburg, KY. English. Free.
August 7, 2 p.m. Hardinsburg, KY. English. Includes CPR Certification(Growers only). $25.
August 9, 9 a.m. Gallatin, TN. English. Free.
August 9, 9 a.m. Gallatin, TN. English. Includes CPR Certification (Growers only). $25.
August 9, 2 p.m. Gallatin, TN. English. Free.
August 9, 2 p.m. Gallatin, TN. English. Includes CPR Certification (Growers only). $25.

Making merger a reality: Kenneth Kelly (center) describes his plans for a new auction warehouse company combining Wilson, N.C., companies Horizon Ltd. and Big M Tobacco. Listening are employees Fred Sorrell (left) and Billy "Buzzard" Nichols. Kelly will manage the new auction, which will be held in the Big M warehouse in Wilson.

There will be one new flue-cured auction this season. The Virginia-Carolina Tobacco Warehouse is located at 11621 US Hwy. 15 South in Clarksville, Va. It is roughly halfway between Raleigh and Richmond and five miles north of the N.C. state line. Call 434 736 2130 for more information. This warehouse will be operated by Mac Bailey and his family who were until recently the owners of Baileys cigarette brands and who as buyers strongly supported auction sales since they were revived about 10 years ago.

But there will be one less flue-cured warehouse in Wilson, N.C. Big M Tobacco, which occupied the historic warehouse at the corner of Goldsboro St. and Ward Blvd., has merged with Horizon Ltd., which for the last three years has conducted auctions in a building on Black Creek Road, will conduct both live and silent auctions once a week in the Big M building. Speak to Kenneth Kelly at 252 292 8822 for more information ...A long history: The Goldsboro St./Ward Blvd. building was the Liberty Tobacco ware house for many years before it was acquired by Big M. Before that it was the Centre Brick warehouse. It was built in 1950.

The American Tobacco Exchange will again offer live auctions at its location on 2101 Miller Rd. in Wilson. Call auction manager Tommy Faulkner at 910 585 2708 for more information. "This could be a good crop in this area," Faulkner says. "We have had unusually hot and dry weather up till this week. But now we have gotten some water, and the temperature has backed off."

Old Belt Tobacco Sales will conduct live auctions again this season in his warehouse near Rural Hall, says owner Dennis White. Call him at 336 416 6262 for more information. The Rural Hall area got two inches or more of rain Tuesday to end what had been a bit of a hot, dry spell. Tobacco reacted very well. "It has been a hot summer, but the temperatures have been lower since heavy rains fell on July 23," White says. Farmers in the area around Winston-Salem have just started priming. "We seem to have the best crop we've had in several years," he says. "It appears to be heavy with good quality."

Watch for a report on burley auctions in a future issue of Tobacco Farmer Newsletter.

In other tobacco news:

FLUE-CURED

The heat wave and drought had created some up and down crops in much of North Carolina prior to July 23. In Franklin County, N.C., north of Raleigh, some tobacco there was only knee high, while some was head height. In Craven County, between Greenville and Wilmington, heat and lack of rainfall had stressed crops and delayed field work, and insect pests had reached threshold levels in a few scattered fields.

In Virginia, flue-cured growers got relief from the heat and drought a week sooner than N.C., when rainstorms fell Monday through Thursday last week. In Greensville County on the Southside, 1 ½ to three inches fell in most places. Water was standing in some fields, causing some drowning. In some locations it was too wet to get equipment in for herbicide applications.

In Georgia, an estimated 28 percent of the crop had been harvested, while in South Carolina, 74 percent had been topped and 10 percent harvested.

BURLEY & DARK

In Kentucky, precipitation from remnants of Tropical Storm Barry fell early last week in many tobacco areas. But it was followed later in the week by excessive heat, and the crop showed signs of stress. An estimated 37 percent of the crop was blooming, and 15 percent had been topped by July 22.

In Tennessee, little field work could be done last week, due to off and on rain showers. Topping and sucker control progressed as producers could get into fields. The crop generally looks good. "However, we could use a little drier weather for a while," said an Extension agent. The USDA report estimated that 43 percent of the tobacco had been topped.

The season started out wet, and it stayed wet in Macon County, Tennessee, and Monroe and Allen Counties in neighboring Kentucky. "One farmer with 100 acres of burley got four inches of rain in two hours last Friday (July 19). It fell hard, and the soil already had had too much water," says Keith Allen, Macon Co. Extension director. I am not sure if he is going to make anything." One small bit of good news. "It has been sunny with lower humidity this week, and we have been able to get field work done."

Yield potential has definitely been lowered in this area, which lies north and east of Nashville, says Allen, but as with tobacco everywhere, good weather from now to season's end could lead to some recovery. Allen makes a very rough estimate of production in the county at 2 ½ million to three million pounds, a big reduction from the seven million plus pounds of just a few years ago. Much of that is due to reduced plantings since Alliance One ceased buying American burley before last season. It formerly bought a lot of burley in this area.

DATES TO REMEMBER

GAP Farm Safety & Compliance Events:

GAP Connections will host a number of Farm Safety & Compliance Training Events this summer. Attendees will rotate through interactive stations as they learn about safety and compliance topics required by the GAP Program. Registration is free except that at some, there will also be an opportunity to earn CPR & AED certification during the events at a registration fee of $25. You must pre-register. For more details, visit www. gapconnections .com or call GAP Connections at (865) 622-4606. Dates and places appear below.

August 5, 5 p.m. Danville, KY. English. Includes CPR Certification (Growers only). $25.

August 5, 5 p.m. Danville, KY. English. Free.

August 7, 9 a.m. Hardinsburg, KY. English. Free.

August 7, 9 a.m. Hardinsburg, KY. English. $25.

August 7, 2 p.m. Hardinsburg, KY. English. Free.

August 7, 2 p.m. Hardinsburg, KY. English. Includes CPR Certification(Growers only). $25.

August 9, 9 a.m. Gallatin, TN. English. Free.

August 9, 9 a.m. Gallatin, TN. English. Includes CPR Certification (Growers only). $25.

August 9, 2 p.m. Gallatin, TN. English. Free.

August 9, 2 p.m. Gallatin, TN. English. Includes CPR Certification (Growers only). $25.

Concentrating on top price: Auction manager Tommy Faulkner leads an auction sale at the American Tobacco Exchange in Wilson, N.C., a year ago. Auctions for the 2019 crop will begin next week at American Tobacco and two other warehouses (see below). Photo by Chris Bickers.

USDA PROJECTS

A BIGGER CROP THAN EXPECTED

Despite extreme weather conditions over much of the Tobacco Belt earlier this season and reduced acreage for almost all types, USDA predicted in its August production report that:

Flue-cured growers will produce a volume of 314.7 million pounds, down only 7 percent from 2018,
Burley growers will produce a volume of 105.7 million pounds, up 5.2 percent from 2018, and
Dark air-cured growers will produce a volume of 28.6 million pounds, up 7.7 percent from 2018.
But fire-cured, Pennsylvania seedleaf and Southern Maryland were all projected down substantially.

Among the individual states and types, the projections were:

Flue-cured: NC---244 million pounds, down 2.7 percent. VA--35.7 million pounds, down 15 percent. GA--18 million pounds, down 24 percent. SC--17 million pounds, down 23.2 percent.

Burley: KY--90 million pounds, up 12.5 percent. TN--8 million pounds, down 11.2 percent. PA--5.75 million pounds, down 34.6 percent. VA--1.26 million pounds, down 16 percent. NC --720,000 pounds, down 36 percent.

Other types: Fire-cured--47 million pounds, down 19 percent. Dark air-cured--28.66 million pounds, up 7.7 percent. Pa. Seedleaf-- 5.06 million pounds, 8.3 percent down. Southern Maryland--2.3 million pounds, down 25.3 percent.

All tobacco production was forecast at 504 million pounds, down five percent from 2018. Yield for the 2019 crop year is forecast at 2,110 pounds per acre, 280 pounds above last year. Area harvested, at 238,920 acres, is down 18 percent from last year. If realized, this will be the lowest harvested acreage on record.

AUCTION WAREHOUSE OPENINGS begin next week:

August 21--Horizon Ltd., 1723 Goldsboro St. So., Wilson, N.C. Live & silent auctions. Contact Kenneth Kelly at 252 292 8822.
August 21-American Tobacco Exchange, 2101 Miller Rd., Wilson, NC. Live auction. Contact auction manager Tommy Faulkner at 910 585 2708.
August 21--Coastal Piedmont, 1291 Johnston Parkway, Kenly, N.C. Auction sales. Wednesday, August 21. Contact Mickey Pegram at 270 932 1830, Roger Stanley at 919 628 9075 or the office at 919 284 0504.
August 27--Old Belt Tobacco Sales, 1395 Old Belt Way, Rural Hall, N.C. Live auctions. Flue-cured and burley will be sold. Contact Dennis White at 336 416 6262 or the warehouse switchboard at 336 969 6891.
September 5--Virginia-Carolina Tobacco Warehouse, 11621 US Hwy. 15 South, Clarksville, Va. Contact 434 736 2130.

NOTE: All the warehouses listed above will auction flue-cured. Old Belt Tobacco will also auction burley. If any warehouses other than those listed here will be auctioning flue-cured this season, please contract me at 919 789 4631--Chris Bickers.

DATES TO REMEMBER

August 24, 10 a.m.-3 pm. Harvest and Hornworm Festival. Duke Homestead State Historic Site, Durham NC. For more information, call (919) 627 - 6990.

A farmer cuts and spears his burley tobacco in a field in western North Carolina a few miles from the Tennessee border. File photo by Chris Bickers.

The beginning of flue-cured auctions was a bit anticlimactic, thanks to limited offerings from farmers. At the Old Belt Tobacco auction in Rural Hall, N.C., Owner Dennis White had to delay his first sale from August 27 to September 3 because he didn't have enough volume to justify opening. But there is plenty on his floor now, and he is looking forward to next Tuesday's sale. "This is the best floor I have ever seen. It has a good orange color, and the lugs have the body that the trade demands."

Three warehouses opened in or near Wilson, N.C., on August 21 and had a second sale on the 28th. Horizon Manager Kenneth Kelly says the lugs that made up most of the offerings on his floor didn't attract much interest from buyers. "It has been a challenge," he says. But he has grounds for optimism. "When we have had lugs with color and some body, the sale has picked up."

Harvest is going full throttle in the Piedmont, says Dennis White. "I think most farmers have been over their crop one time already. "

Where harvest is running ahead: Progress report from USDA-NASS--Through August 25, flue-cured harvest in Georgia was 67 percent complete, in South Carolina 79 percent complete, in North Carolina 36 percent and in Virginia 51 percent complete. Among burley states, harvest in Kentucky is 24 percent complete, in Tennessee 20 percent complete, and in North Carolina 11 percent complete. Also, in Kentucky, 92 percent of the crop was blooming by the 25th, and 75 percent was topped. In Tennessee, 66 percent was topped by that date.

One of several surprises in the USDA's crop report two weeks ago was the projection that Kentucky's burley crop would amount to 90 million pounds, up 12.7 percent from last season. But Bob Pearce, Kentucky Extension tobacco specialist, says 90 million pounds may not be too far off. "It is not our best crop ever, but it is a fair crop overall."

Correction: The listing for North Carolina burley in the report on USDA's August Crop Report in the August II issue should have read "NC--720,000 pounds, down 36 percent."

The value of irrigation was clear in North Carolina this year, says Matthew Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist. In many situations it might have paid for itself in one season. "But that would have been a very hard sell with as many challenges as there are in the tobacco market and general ag sector right now."

Angular leafspot was the worst its been since 2016 in the dark-producing areas of Kentucky and Tennessee, says Andy Bailey, Extension dark tobacco specialist for those two states. "Some farmers have tried a copper oxide product called Nordox for the first time," says Bailey. "But the control you get with it is just fair." Dry weather in the first two or three weeks of August helped suppress angular leafspot more than anything farmers could have sprayed, Bailey says.

Could the Black Patch be the best place to grow Connecticut broadleaf? Users of Connecticut Broadleaf, one of the two types of cigar tobacco traditionally grown in the Northeast, have been looking for new areas to grow the type, with Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee getting a chance to show how well suited they are to producing the type. It seems to be doing very well in Kentucky and Tennessee. That may in part be because broadleaf is primarily grown for wrapper leaf for cigars, and the Black Patch growers have plenty of experience growing wrapper leaves.

In fact, the practices for Connecticut broadleaf wrappers are very much like those for Kentucky-Tennessee dark wrappers, says Bailey. "Broadleaf is not planted extremely early, maybe mid-May. Once in the field, it is about two week earlier than dark air-cured." Very careful handling is required, he added. Recommended management practices include:

Harvest no more than three weeks after topping.
Use the same stick spacing as with dark air cured, he says.
Any dark barn in good condition should be satisfactory for curing broadleaf, which is cut, speared and hung on tier poles like dark and burley.
Use scaffold wagons to transport broadleaf. "If you use flatbed wagons like you do for burley, you will get far too much damage."

Between 700 and 800 acres of broadleaf appear to have been planted in Kentucky and Tennessee, says Bailey. As of now, yield and quality appear good.

Price outlook: Kentucky Extension economist Will Snell has described broadleaf as a "high risk/high return" that "will fetch a higher price than burley and dark tobaccos, reportedly in the $3.50 to $5.00/lb. or higher range for top quality leaf. But that will require much more management, higher input costs and lower yield potential" than the dark types.

A report from Canada: Harvest is under way in Canada's tobacco-producing area of southern Ontario, which lies north of the north shore of Lake Erie. "There are no widespread problems reported to the Canadian Tobacco Research Foundation at this time," said a report from the organization. "Currently, aphid and hornworm pressure seem to be very limited in most fields. To date, there have been no reports this season of blue mold in Ontario."

The leader in organic leaf? North Carolina grows the most organic tobacco, with 6,391 ac-res planted in 2017. Virginia was second with 2,683 acres, followed by Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Tennessee. (Source USDA-NASS).

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Buyers bid for tobacco at an auction in Wilson, N.C. File photo by the editor.

In South Carolina, only 10 to 15 percent of the crop was still in the field when Dorian arrived on September 6, says William Hardee, S.C. area Extension agronomy agent for Horry, Marion and Dillon Counties. "There was not much blowing off of leaves, but there was a lot of overripening due to the plant's production of ethylene." Farmers tried to harvest and barn what they could, but Hardee predicts that three quarters of the tobacco that was in the field wil be abandoned.

In North Carolina, leaf is deteriorating quickly in areas struck by Dorian. Farmers are harvesting as fast as they can. One observer predicted that all harvestable to-bacco

will be out of the field by October 1, several weeks earlier than it has in recent years. "We needed four or five weeks," said our source. The worst damage was east and south of Ral-eigh. There was some damage in the northeast but considerably less.

In the Piedmont, there was hardly any effect of Dorian, says Dennis White, owner of Old Belt Tobacco Sales, Rural Hall, N.C. "As a matter of fact, we still need water." He estimates that harvest is half complete in his area.

50 million pounds loss in N.C.? The Tobacco Growers Association of North Carolina estimated the crop loss caused by Dorian in N.C. at 50 million pounds. That is based on the estimate that 60 percent of the crop remained in the field when the storm arrived and that 25 to 30 percent was destroyed or rendered unmarketable.

The effect on the market? "The

demand is soft--there is too much production world wide, and our U.S. leaf is challenged by the strong dollar relative to global options," said the statement from TGANC. "We very likely had over produced our domestic acres already, so the 50 million destroyed in the storm brings us closer to actual demand. That isn't to say we would not have sold the entire larger crop, but at what prices?"

Auction report: Leaf grades have not begun arriving in any volume at the flue-cured auction warehouses, and there has been grower disappointment with prices bid for some lugs. Cutters have reportedly sold fairly well. There is optimism that any high-quality tobacco offered for sale from here on may command good prices as a result of the Dorian damage.

September Crop Report--Production estimates continue downward: In a survey completed before Dorian arrived, USDA predicted in its September Crop Report that flue-cured production would total 304 million pounds, down three percent from last month and 10 percent from 2018. Burley production was expected to total 96.0 million pounds, down nine percent from the last month and four percent from last year. Among the individual states, with percentage change from 2018:

FLUE-CURED·

North Carolina, 236 million pounds, down six percent.·
Virginia, 33 million pounds down 21 percent.·
Georgia, 18 million pounds down 33 percent.·
South Carolina, 17 million pounds, down 23 percent.

BURLEY

Kentucky, 81 million pounds, up two percent.
Tennessee, 6.4 million pounds, down 29 percent.
Pennsylvania, 6 million pounds, down 31 percent.
Virginia, 1.26 million pounds, down 16 percent.
North Carolina, 640, 000 pounds, down 43 percent.

OTHER TYPES

Fire-cured, 46.7 million pounds, down 20 percent.
Dark air-cured, 28 million pounds, up 7.7 percent.
Pennsylvania seedleaf, 5 million pounds, down nine percent.
Southern Maryland/Pennsylvania, 2.2 million pounds, down 28 percent.

Last day of harvest--Rob Glover of Bailey, N.C., (between Wilson and Raleigh) finished barning his crop today (October 2), The season ended very dry, he says. "We got some rain from Hurricane Dorian, but it wasn't much, and we haven't had any since then." Above: Workers in one of Glover's fields. Photo by the Editor.

FLUE-CURED

North Carolina: Three weeks after Dorian blew through, it appears that North Carolina was spared a huge loss from the hurricane. There was little flooding, and the severe winds didn't blow down too much of the crop. But the whipping effect off the wind caused a great deal of premature ripening, and the leaf deteriorated quickly. Some fields had to be abandoned. Some yield loss was obviously experienced, but an estimate can't be made just yet. The damage occurred almost

entirely east of Interstate 95, in the southeastern corner of the Eastern Belt. Most of the tobacco in all east-ern North Carolina has been harvested or aban-doned by now, but the Old Belt has a good late crop, much of it still in the field, and harvest may continue till mid-October...USDA has esti-mated that 88 percent of the state flue-cured crop was harvested by Mon-day.

South Carolina: Everything is harvested that's going to be harvested, says S.C. area Extension agronomy agent for Horry, Marion and Dillon Counties. But that is hardly good news. The tobacco-growing area of S.C. were hit hard by Dorian, and quick ripening was a problem on much of it. Not all of that could be harvested, and a lot that was harvested is very dark and will be difficult to market. Also, some other leaf got sunscald after the torrential rains followed by 100-degree temperatures and may also turn out to be unmarketable.

Virginia: There's been no significant rainfall anywhere in Virginia's flue-cured-growing acres in six weeks. Much has been pulled but some still remains and probably will until mid October. That tobacco will probably have better yields...USDA estimated 95 percent of the Virginia crop has been harvested by September 30.

Georgia: Only one farmer is still harvesting tobacco in Georgia, at least as far as J. Michael Moore, Georgia Extension tobacco specialist, can tell. "He should finish this week." The tobacco that has already been cured appears thin, and this crop will be no better than average. There were many areas that got excessive rainfall on more than one occasion, leading to damaged root systems. And starting in May, there was almost constant heat. "I guess we should be happy that we got the yields we did," Moore says...

Florida experienced heat and excessive rain too and appears to have produced an average crop, says Moore. Harvest has been finished there for several weeks.

BURLEY

Kentucky: The temperature is sizzling in Kentucky, says Bob Pearce, Extension tobacco specialist. "It is predicted to be very hot and dry for three days. It is not likely that farmers will try to take down and strip their tobacco in these conditions: There is not enough moisture to get the leaf in case." As soon as that changes,

farmers will start taking down in earnest, he says...Most of the Kentucky burley crop has been harvested, although a few farmers who have to work around labor issues may still have a way to go. "The earliest harvested tobacco looks good," says Pearce. "It is a little high in color as would be expected. Yield for the whole crop appears about average. The quality is fair."

Tennessee: Crabgrass is about the only thing growing in Wilson County, near Nashville, says Extension agent A. Ruth Correll. There were some spotty sprinkles but no significant rain last week. A few showers last Thursday helped out a little in Cheatham County, also near Nashville. "[But] we are still very dry," says Ronnie Barron, Extension agent. USDA estimates harvest at 94 percent.

North Carolina: Temperatures remained hot and above normal in Jackson and Swain County. "Some scattered-to-widespread thunderstorms dropped about a half inch of rainfall moistening and providing relief for the abnormally dry conditions," said Robert Hawk, Extension agent. USDA estimates harvest at 53 percent complete.

Virginia: In the burley-growing area of southwest Virginia, weather conditions are universally reported as much drier than normal. Minimal rainfall and 90-degree-weather continued in Smyth County last week. In Scott County, Extension agent Scott Jerrell said that without significant rainfall, a drought declaration will soon be forthcoming.

DATES TO REMEMBER

December 5, 9 a.m.--12 p.m. N.C. Tobacco Day, Johnston County Extension Center, Smithfield, N.C. Lunch will follow the program.

Buyers bid on leaf at American Tobacco Exchange warehouse in Wilson, N.C., at an auction on October 16. Photo by the Editor.

Auction sales of flue-cured tobacco were in extreme doldrums in October. At a sale at the American Tobacco Exchange warehouse in Wilson, N.C., on October 16, the top price seemed to be around $1.20 a pound, and that was for some very good tobacco. A lot of the crop appeared to have been sold at $.90 a pound and some sold as low as $.75, which would obviously not cover the cost of production.

Prices are too low, said Rick Smith, president of Independent Leaf Tobacco and one of the buyers at the sale. "I don't know how farmers are making any money the way things are. Some are going to have to think about leaving the crop. I know tobacco farmers aren't quitters but with no demand, this is a losing battle."

Harvest is over in East N.C., South Carolina, Georgia and Florida. But some flue-cured is still in the field in the Piedmont area of western N.C. and perhaps some in Vir-ginia.

The USDA's final proj-ection of crop vol-ume for 2019 was that flue-cured will be down 15 percent in volume, in large part because of dry weather throughout the season and also the cat-astrophic effect of Hurricane Dorian in eastern North Carolina and South Carolina. But the burley crop was projected only eight percent downward, mainly because of good conditions that lead to a good yield in Kentucky.

Following are USDA's October projections for each of the types. For flue-cured and burley, projections by state are included.

FLUE-CURED

North Carolina--212.4 million pounds, down 15.3 percent from last season.
Virginia--30 million pounds, down 28.5 percent from last season.
Georgia--18 million pounds, down 24.2 percent from last season.
South Carolina--13 million pounds, down 38.5 percent from last season.
All U.S. flue-cured--274 million pounds, down 24.1 percent from last season.

BURLEY

Kentucky--77.9 million pounds, down 2.6 percent from last season.
Tennessee--6 million pounds, down 33.3 percent from last season.
Pennsylvania--6 million pounds, down 31.8 percent from last season.
Virginia--1.2 million pounds, down 16 percent from last season.
North Carolina--0.64 million pounds, down 42 percent from last season.
All U.S. burley--91.8 million pounds, down 8.5 percent from last season.

OTHER TYPES

Fire-cured--47.4 million pounds, down 19.5 percent from last season.
Dark air-cured--27.6 million pounds, up 3.7 percent from last season.
Pennsylvania seedleaf--5 million pounds, down 8.3 percent from last season.
Southern Maryland--2.2 million pounds, down 28.5 percent from last season.

ALL TOBACCO--448 million pounds, down 16 percent from last season.

OVERSEAS REPORT

In Malawi, our major competitor in burley, very dry weather reduced production, then the crop encountered a lackluster market, according to a leaf dealer. An average price (in US$/kilogram) of $1.32 had been achieved by the

close of the market, down from $1.56 in 2018. There were an exceptional number of no sales which were allocated to the trade at a very low average price of $0.50 per kilogram. Total volume sold was nearly 138 million kilograms, down from 164 million in 2018.

Still beating a billion: Brazil flue-cured volume in 2020 is projected at 1.3 billion pounds, down slightly from 2019 but still dominating world pro-duction of the type. Brazilian burley production is estimated at 121 million pounds, down 15 percent from 2019. Transplanting of both types is nearly complete. Source: Hail & Cotton International Group.

Zimbabwe pounds up: The 2019 Zimbabwe flue-cured crop, just marketed, is estimated to have been 571.6 million pounds in volume, up 2.7 percent from the year before. The price was 2.02 per kilogram, down from 30 percent from the year before.

DATES TO REMEMBER

December 5, 9 a.m.-noon. N.C. Tobacco Day, Johnston County Extension Center, Smith-field, N.C. Lunch will follow the program.

As best this publication can tell, all the 2019 crop--like this burley wilting in Tennessee in October--has been harvested. Photo courtesy of the University of Tennessee.

THIS MIGHT HAVE BEEN ONE OF THE MOST DIFFICULT GROWING SEASONS EVER, SAYS MATTHEW VANN, N.C. EXTENSION SPECIALIST.

"We had good soil moisture to start the season," he says. "But we had record-breaking heat and drought, starting in mid May. Except for the hurricane, there was substantially no break in the heat until three weeks ago. If we could irrigate more it would have helped but many farmers just aren't set up for it."

The yield was definitely affected. "In an average year, we might have a yield of 2,500 to 2,600 pounds per acre across the state," Vann says. "We are not going to make that. Perhaps we will fall short by 200 to 300 pounds."

Disappointment in the price: This market has been a big disappointment, thanks mainly to the low prices. The only way to improve things next is to adopt a quality strategy. "In 2020, we are going to live or die by the quality we produce," says Vann. "Look at little things you can do to focus on quality."

Pressure off barn space: Most flue-cured growers have been really strapped for barn space for several years. "In 2020, there should be less pressure," says Vann. "You won't have to be in such a hurry to get your crop out in the field in the spring, and you won't have to leave the crop out as long as possible in the fall." Quality could be favorably affected by both situations, he said

Harvest is done in Kentucky after a hard frost Saturday. Bob Pearce, Kentucky Extension tobacco specialist, says burley yields should be about average at 2,100 pounds per acre, he says, and up from last year. For the season, it was too wet early and too dry late. It was also dry during the cure, so the quality may have been affected. But it is hard to tell since only 30 percent to 40 percent of the crop has been stripped, says Pearce.

Top goal for 2020: Take advantage of the tools available to keep black shank in check. They include good rotation and choice of a resistant variety, then application of Orondis or Ridomil in the transplant water, then Presidio or Ridomil at first cultivation or layby. There are several good black-shank-resistant burley varieties, including KT 209, KT 210 and KT 215, says Pearce.

Burley harvest in Virginia is complete also. The last few fields were cut in late October, with perhaps the very last one harvested in Appomattox County the last few days of the month. Dark tobacco has reached the market preparation stage.

In the dark tobacco areas of western Kentucky and Tennessee, yields of the dark types look to be down a little, says Andy Bailey, Extension tobacco specialist for that area. "Our average yield for dark fire-cured will probably be down at least 2 to 300 pounds per acre to 3,000 pounds."

The weather in the Black Patch was characterized by a very wet spring and intense late summer drought. "It reached 93 degrees on October 3," Bailey says. Then it was dry in the curing season. "Our dark air-cured and burley cured very fast, maybe in less than six weeks as compared to the normal seven or eight." It is yet to be seen if that will have a quality impact.

Some fields were so wet in the spring they had to be re-set in July. That had them growing in a period of bad drought in late August and all of September and definitely affected yield. "We had more late set tobacco than ever," he says. The Purchase area of Kentucky was one of the most affected.

Disease report from the Deep South: Low levels of TSWV--"Only 10 to 12 percent of the crop [in Georgia] displayed TSWV," says J. Michael Moore, Georgia Extension tobacco specialist. Control measures seem to have helped. "Much of the crop was treated in the greenhouse with a tray drench of Admire Pro. Some was treated with a foliar spray of Actigard also. Black shank--Orondis Gold in the transplant water and Presidio or Ridomil at layby. But in case of rain, you may apply Ridomil at first cultivation and you might choose to do the Presidio layby application as well. Rotation and varietal resistance also need to be included. "Where farmers use these tools, they have worked pretty well," he says.

Yields in Georgia-Florida were slightly better than average this season. Moore estimates average yield in Georgia at 2,200 pounds per acre and in Florida at 2,400 to 2,450 pounds.

Auction report: Most sound flue-cured brought $1 to $1.10 a pound at the Old Belt warehouse in Rural Hall, N.C., at its weekly sale Tuesday. Almost all of the tobacco offered was third and fourth grades. That represented a considerable drop from the average of a few weeks ago

How long will auction season last? White says he will continue sales till Thanksgiving week or even later if there is tobacco to sell. The Piedmont crop was so late this year that he believes there is still substantial tobacco on the farm at this time. But he says everything has been harvested.

OVERSEAS REPORT

Disarray in Zimbabwe: "Most of the growers who sold on the auction floors [this year] received sub- economic returns," said the Zimbabwe Tobacco Association in a statement. "This will have a [negative] impact on their ability to finance themselves for the next season."

DATES TO REMEMBER

December 5, 9 a.m.-noon. N.C. Tobacco Day, Johnston County Extension Center, Smithfield, N.C. Lunch will follow the program.

EDITOR'S NOTE: If you haven't signed on to receive the newsletter regularly by email or if you need to change an address, please click on "Join our mailing list" and follow the prompts. For more information, you can call me at 919-789-4631 or email me at cebickers@aol.com.

On a highly mechanized burley operation in east Tennessee, a farmer prepares cured leaf for marketing in this image from several years ago. How much mechanization will be right for you in the coming season, or how little? File photo by the editor.

There can be no doubt: Tobacco farmers will face a huge challenge making a profit in 2020. There are a variety of reasons but the one most difficult to address is that...

The world supply of leaf is way out of proportion to the current demand. The dreary prospects for 2020 that TFN is hearing are that we might have an attrition among tobacco farmers of 20 percent, if not more.

Identifying the problem: The Tobacco Growers Association of N.C. held a forum on the situation on January 19. I wasn't allowed to attend, but I was able to interview four of the participants right afterward and heard some good ideas. Here is what I found out:

The strong American dollar is a big problem for our leaf, said Graham Boyd, chief executive officer, TGANC. "It puts us at a big disadvantage in the world market. It interferes with our efforts to recapture lost markets but we must keep trying."

The first step now is to contact your financier and find out what is going to be realistic in 2020, said Blake Brown, N.C. Extension ag economist. "Try to have a plan. You don't want to be in a situation of where you are desperate and tempted to respond with desperate moves."

There is a lot of excess production in the world. A resumption of sales to China would be a godsend, but if it happened now, it might not take place in time for the 2020 crop.

It was a dismal season for Jeff Turlington. "We made about a half crop," said the flue-cured grower of Coats, N.C., just south of Raleigh. "We had drought from the beginning, then too much rain for several months, then Hurricane Dorian." which brought 45 to 50 mile gusts that hasted ripening much faster than could be handled. His other crops don't look very promising now.

The yield in 2019 was definitely down for Tom Shaw of Vance County, N.C. "The crop was beautiful early, but in July the weather changed," said Shaw. "Marketing this crop was a challenge. Our problem was trash and burnt tails. What the buyers wanted was what we didn't have."

Start gathering ideas now on how to produce tobacco at the lowest possible cost. A good place to start will be the North Carolina Tobacco Day on December 5 at the Johnston County Extension Center, Smithfield, N.C., lasting from 9 a.m. through lunch. Here is a partial list of the presentations. All speakers except Griffin are members of the N.C. Extension Service.

The outlook for 2020--Brown.
An update on cost of production for 2020--Gary Bullen, agricultural economist.
Could you apply MH to the stalk with a sprayer attached to a mechanical harvester?--Grant Ellington.
Emerging disease considerations --Lindsey Thiessen, plant pathologist.
New herbicides for 2020--Matthew Vann, crop & soil scientist.
How to scout better for insects--Hannah Burrack, entomologist.
A grower's perspective-Griffin.

Report from Tennessee: In upper east Tennessee, burley attained decent size early in the season, but then the rain stopped, said Bennie Davis of Surgoinsville. "We didn't have enough water to fill it out. It really needed water to bloom." He went ahead and harvested in September, but the weather problem has continued and he hasn't been able to strip any of it yet."It is sappy in the top third of the plant," he said. "We will have a hard time marketing a desirable crop, and it is going to be light."

Burley declining in the Blue Ridge: Hawkins County, where Davis lives near the border with Virginia, once had a thriving burley crop. But as best Davis can tell now, it was down to three growers this year, including him. The bad prospects for 2020 may bring an historic industry to its end in this mountainous area nestled in the Ridge and Valley region.

OVERSEAS REPORT

In the Philippines, growers get help from Representatives: A legislator has introduced a bill in the House of Representatives seeking to regulate vaping products. According to CNN Philippines, the purpose of the bill in part is to protect small-scale tobacco farmers who have been suffering losses due to e-cigarettes, which are commonly advertised as "safer" and "less harmful" alternatives to conventional tobacco products.

This is the November II
issue of Tobacco Farmer Newsletter. If you haven't signed on to receive the newsletter regularly or if you need to change an address, please click on "Join our mailing list" and follow the prompts. For more information, you can call me at 919-789-4631 or email me at cebickers@aol.com.

One of the highlights of the N.C. Tobacco Day program on December 5 was the presentation by Blake Brown, N.C. Extension ag economist, outlining the prospects for growth in sales on the world market. The outlook is not cheering.

Here are the factors that Brown thinks should be of most concern to farmers as they plan for 2020 (with a little analysis by the editor):

The demand for combustible tobacco products continues its accelerated decline.

There have been an avalanche of new smoking-related technologies in recent years, and unfortunately, all contain less tobacco per unit than do cigarettes.

Even if the dispute with China were resolved now, we will still have the problem of selling inventories left from 2018. If it is resolved, the resumption of trade with China would positively impact U.S. sales in 2021 (although not likely 2020). But the overall trend is still declining sales.

Some policy intervention could potentially improve the short-run outlook.

There is one bright spot on the export scene: the continued growth in the demand for premium cigarette brands continues to grow among Asian consumers. This situation has benefited American cigarettes in the past.

How farmers feel about the coming season--Tobacco Farmer Newsletter took the opportunity to interview several farmers at N.C. Tobacco Day. Here's what some had to say:

What can you count on? At times this season, the connection of quality in tobacco and profitability seemed turned on its head. The market just isn't going to work if that keeps up. Tim Yarbrough of Prospect Hill, N.C., noted, "There has to be some value in quality tobacco that the farmer can count on."

A morale problem: Steve Griffin, a flue-cured grower from Washington, N.C., and president of the Tobacco Growers Association of N.C., said that there is a growing

frustration with the operation of the Tobacco GAP program among farmers, some of whom see no tangible return to the grower who complies with the program. "They see instances of GAP - certified farm-ers who lose their contracts while some farmers who are not compliant with GAP stay in business," he said. Excellence is the goal: It is hard to maintain morale in this situation, he said. "GAP should reward excellence," he added.

Bad weather lead to "terrible" yields on the tobacco produced in 2019 at the Oxford (N.C.) research station, said Carl Watson, tobacco research specialist for thestation. "We produced 2,000 pounds per acre, while we normally average 3,000 and 3,200 pounds per acre," he said at Tobacco Day. "This was a year we want to forget."

Time for an upward bounce? Mack Grady, flue-cured grower from Seven Springs, N.C., thought there was reason for a little hope for 2020. "I know agriculture is at a low point now, but maybe things are about to brighten up," he said. "It takes a while for the ball to hit the floor before it bounces, and we are about due."

An award at Tobacco Day: Zane Hedgecock received the "Tobacco Great" award,


	Hedgecock

which is conferred by the N.C. State agriculture faculty on members of the tobacco family who have made significant contributions to the industry. Hedgecock is chief of staff at the N.C. Department of Agriculture.

See future issues of TFN for further reporting on other presentations at N.C. Tobacco Day.

OVERSEAS REPORT

Zimbabwe price plummets: The average price on the tobacco market was the lowest in 10 years. A tobacco farmer about 125 miles north of Harare told the Zimbabwean publication Fin 24, "This year I increased my tobacco planting area and spent more money than before, but after selling I have nothing to show for it. I even failed to meet all my debts. Getting back into the field this coming season is going to be a challenge. I see farmers scaling down production or pull[ing] out from tobacco farming altogether."

How one leaf merchant is looking at 2020: The leaf dealer Pyxus (formerly Alliance One) remains focused on maintaining low levels of uncommitted inventory, said Pieter Sikkel, chairman, president and CEO in his company's quarterly report. "While some markets continue to present certain challenges, such as the U.S., which remains impacted by the ongoing trade tensions with China, we are encouraged by other markets," he said.

There is plenty of unsold leaf remaining from the U.S. 2019 crop if the Chinese want to buy it. But will they? This flue-cured leaf was sold to a dealer in Wilson, N.C., in October. Photo: Chris Bickers.

The US/China trade deal is still evolving, and I can find no indication that it specifically includes tobacco at this point.

If, as has been speculated, China agrees to buy $40 to $50 billion in U.S. agricultural commodities, that would seem like enough that tobacco could well hope to get some of it. But I see many imponderables here:

It has always been speculated that the original purchases by China of U.S. leaf were made to some degree for political purposes. Are the Chinese still interested in being popular in the tobacco states?

China has gone substantially without American tobacco for one full season with another one beginning soon. But it seems to have been able to get enough flue- cured to meet its needs from Brazil and Zimbabwe, mostly Brazil. Now, adverse

weather caused Zimbabwe's just-harvest-ed crop to be of poor quality, perhaps not good enough for the Chinese, and Brazil had a shorter crop in 2019 so it may not have replenished its un-committed stocks. Poor quality in Zimbabwe and little excess leaf in Brazil mean the Chinese may feel pressure to buy some U.S. leaf for their top quality cigarettes.

I have heard often enough that I have to think there is some truth that the Chinese involved in the American market like working with the U.S. Tobacco Cooperative-the flue-cured cooperative that handled most of the U.S. tobacco exported to the PRC--and would like to salvage a relationship with USTC if they can.

That's a long-winded way of saying there seem to be a lot of reasons that trade with PRC might revive sooner or later. But there are some enormous logistic reasons why it probably won't happen in time to affect the 2020 crop. Watch this space for more details.

A major leaf buyer says this: Pieter Sikkel, president, c.e.o. and chairman of Pyxus International, Inc., the parent company of the leaf dealer Alliance One International, issued the following statement on December 16 regarding the new trade agreement.

"Pyxus applauds the initial trade agreement finalized by the United States and China [Friday] and both governments for their perseverance in reaching this consensus. The agreement is a welcome first step to reopening China's vast consumer market to U.S. agricultural products, including tobacco. While this compromise is only one piece of a much needed comprehensive trade agreement, and additional steps need to take place to restart leaf exports, it is an encouraging move in the right direction, helping to foster enhanced trade and promote greater opportunities for success in the global economy."

The stakes are considerable, as anyone who reads this publication knows. "In the year preceding the trade dispute, the U.S. exported $162 million worth of tobacco to China," said Sikkel. "Last year, that number decreased to only $4 million. This agreement should positively impact the U.S. agricultural industry and American tobacco farmers, who have been hit hard by the on-going trade dispute. We are excited to build on the positive momentum and are hopeful that this signifies sustainable progress in United States-China relations and gr eater economic opportunity for farmers."

OVERSEAS REPORT

A revitalized market in Argentina: In the meantime, Alliance One International is taking steps to restructure its Argentine leaf operations (AOTA) in anticipation of increases in exports and improved competitiveness on the global market. The main step will be relocating AOTA's laf-processing operations from El Carril in the Salta province to Philip Morris International's Argentine affiliate at Rosario de Lerma, also in Salta. This move will occur in time for the 2020 crop and will reflect a closer commercial relationship with PMI. AOTA will continue to contract with growers. "The restructuring of AOI's Argentine operations will help to improve overall efficiency and strengthen price competitiveness," said Sikkel.

In Brazil, harvest is well under way in the big tobacco-producing state of Rio Grande do Sul, according to a report from the leaf dealer Hail and Cotton. Due to excessive rainfall in October and early November and high winds and hailstorms, tobacco has been showing indications of premature yellowing and loss of yield.

Other tobacco news:

Cureco curing controls are no longer for sale at Cureco Inc. of Seven Springs, N.C., but they are still available from Suretrol, the Canadian company that invented the technology. Suretrol has an office in Wilson, N.C., at 5838 St. Rose Church Rd.. Interested farmers can go there or call the main switchboard at (252) 991-0533. Suretrol president Joe Bucek says the perfect heat and humidity control you get with Suretrol/Cureco equipment along with the flexibility of monitoring with a phone are its strongest points.

SOUTHERN FARM SHOW EXHIBITORS

EXHIBITOR LISTINGS (TOBACCO RELATED)

The Southern Farm Show takes place at the North Carolina State Fair February 5 through 7.

The following list includes all exhibitors who would like to display their materials to tobacco farmers. Note: This list will be published once again later in January, so any exhibitor who has been left out may send additional information to chrisbickers@gmail.com.

Jim Graham Bldg.

· 222 Evans Mactavish Agricraft.

· 227 Kelley Mfg. Co. Agricultural equipment.

· 302 Hardee by EVH Manufacturing Co. Sprayers.

· 704 (also 8131) Agri Supply. Agricultural materials.

·807 Mechanical Transplanter Co. Transplanters & seeding equipment.

·808 BulkTobac (Gas Fired Products). Curing equipment and controls.

Kerr Scott Bldg.

1002 TriEst Ag Group. Fumigation supplies.
1015 Yara North America. Fertility products.
1107 Flue Cured Tobacco Services. Curing controls.
1104 GoldLeaf Seed Co. Tobacco seed.
1120 BeltWide Inc. Transplant technology.
1115 Transplant Systems. Greenhouse systems.
1116 Cross Creek Seed. Tobacco seed.
1121 AAA Scale Co.
1201 Carolina Greenhouse & Soil Company.
1202 Reddick Equipment Company Inc. Manufacturer of spraying equipment.
1213 H&H Farm Machinery. “Building sprayers your way since 1978.”
1302 Mid-Atlantic Irrigation Co.
1415 Spapperi (Italy). Setters and other tobacco mechanization.

Exposition Bldg.

3127 (& 8611) Benchmark Buildings & Irrigation. Transplanters/irrigation.
3135 Southern Container Corporation of Wilson. Bale sheets and packaging.
3308 Tobacco Growers Association of N.C.
3311 Flame Engineering. Weed control with flame.
3520 First Products Inc. Fertilizer boxes for cultivators and tool bars.
3605 MarCo Mfg. Tobacco machinery.
3714 Suretrol Manufacturing. Curing Control.

Scott Tent

7025 Drexel Chemical Company. Sucker control chemicals.
7034 (&8012) Coastal AgroBusiness. A full-service agricultural solutions provider serving NC, SC, VA, ETN and NGA.
7302 Fairbanks Scales Inc.
7322 Transplant Systems. A growing system company.Tent 1
5029 AmeriGas Propane. One stop shop for all propane needs.
7334 BJ Williamson Greenhouses.

Outdoors

8039 Vause Equipment Co. Farm equipment.
8208 Wilson Manufacturing. Farm trailers.
8204 Equipmax. Tobacco spray equipment.
8217 Granville Equipment. Tobacco and Hemp Machinery.
8301 De Cloet SRL. Tobacco machinery.
8510 Walters Air Assist Plant Release System. Plant release system.
8516 Mobilift of Burlington, N.C. Forklift sales and service.
8546 {& 227) Kelley Mfg. Co. Agricultural equipment.

Farmers flow into a past Southern Farm Show. This year's show will take place February 5 to 7 in the N.C. State Fairgrounds in Raleigh, N.C. See below for further details. Photo by the editor.

Tobacco stripping in Kentucky was estimated as of January 2 at 82 percent complete, said USDA in its December Crop Progress and Condition report. "[That] put[s] progress on par with historical levels for this juncture," the report said. December, by the way, marked the third straight month with above normal rainfall in Kentucky after a drought.

But many burley farmers suffered less-than-favorable curing conditions, says Ryan Quarles, commissioner of agriculture in Kentucky. The curing season was unfavorable in some areas of Kentucky "In my area of the state [the Bluegrass],

the tobacco didn't properly cure," said Quarles, who's from Georgetown. "And now over the last couple of weeks, we've seen tobacco companies straight up reject buying tobacco that was grown this year, which means for a lot of our producers, they've lost the market." He told the Owensboro (Ky.) Messenger-Enquirer that he's heard from tobacco growers who are dropping the crop in 2020 because of poor returns and increased labor costs.

Lack of rainfall in the hottest parts of July and August damaged burley in upper east Tennessee, says Jason Crouch of Oak Hill Farm near Johnson City, Tn. "[We] probably didn't do as well in the field as we would've hoped," Crouch told TV station WJHL. "It burnt up a little bit in the field and lost some weight." Crouch will grow tobacco again in 2020.

But the number of leaf producers in the area has really dropped in recent years. Anthony Shelton, Extension agent in Washington County, remembers that 20 years ago, "You couldn't drive two miles without seeing tobacco--here, there and everywhere," he said, "Now, you have to really get off the beaten path to find tobacco fields."

Uncertainty continues among most tobacco producers. "I don't know of a grower in North Carolina that has a plan for next year," Brent Leggett, Nashville, N.C., told National Public Radio at the end of last year's growing season, "Survival is the plan right now." N.C. commissioner of agriculture Steve Troxler added, "The question is, if I raise it, is it going to be profitable? And, you know, if you're not going to turn a profit, then why would you do it?"

OVERSEAS REPORT

Zimbabwe signup down: Registrations by farmers to grow tobacco in Zimbabwe in 2020 is 15 percent lower than a year ago, says the online publication Spotlight Zimbabwe. "Truth be told, farmers have lost interest in tobacco farming," said the Zimbabwe Commercial Farmers Union president Shadreck Makombe. "They felt cheated from last season. The cost of labor input was not commensurate with their earnings."

DATES TO REMEMBER

The Southern Farm Show starts Wednesday, February 5, and runs through Friday at the North Carolina State Fairgrounds in Raleigh. Gates open at 9 a.m. and close at 4 p.m. Admission is free and there is no charge for parking. For more information about the Show, go to https://southernshows.com.

Growers meet: The annual meeting of the Tobacco Growers Association will take place at the show on Friday, February 7. It starts at 10 a.m. in the Holshouser Building and ends at lunch. GAP training will be available afterward.

Tobacco-related exhibitors include (by building and exhibit number):

Jim Graham Bldg.

222 Evans Mactavish Agricraft.
227 Kelley Mfg. Co. Agricultural equipment.
302 Hardee by EVH Manufacturing Co. Sprayers.
704 (also 8131) Agri Supply. Agricultural materials.
807 Mechanical Transplanter Co. Transplanters, seeding equipment for tobacco, vegetables and hemp.
808 BulkTobac (Gas Fired Products). Curing equipment and controls.

Kerr Scott Bldg.

1002 TriEst Ag Group. Fumigation supplies.
1015 Yara North America. Fertility products.
1107 Flue Cured Tobacco Services. Curing controls.
1104 GoldLeaf Seed Co. Tobacco seed.
1120 BeltWide Inc. Transplant technology.
1115 Transplant Systems. Greenhouse systems.
1116 Cross Creek Seed. Tobacco seed.
1121 AAA Scale Co.
1201 Carolina Greenhouse & Soil Company.
1202 Reddick Equipment Company Inc. Manufacturer of spraying equipment.
1213 H&H Farm Machinery. "Building sprayers your way since 1978."
1302 Mid-Atlantic Irrigation Co.
1415 Spapperi (Italy). Setters and other tobacco mechanization.

Exposition Bldg.

3127 (& 8611) Benchmark Buildings & Irrigation. Transplanters/irrigation.
3135 Southern Container Corporation of Wilson. Bale sheets and packaging.
3308 Tobacco Growers Association of N.C.

3311 Flame Engineering. Weed control with flame.
3520 First Products Inc. Fertilizer boxes for cultivators and tool bars.
3605 MarCo Mfg. Tobacco machinery.
3714 Suretrol Manufacturing. Curing Controls.

Scott Tent

7025 Drexel Chemical Company. Sucker control chemicals.
7027 ABI Irrigation. Irrigation equipment.

7034 (&8012) Coastal AgroBusiness. A full-service agricultural solutions provider serving NC, SC, VA, ETN and NGA.
7302 Fairbanks Scale.
7322 Transplant Systems. A growing system company.

Tent 1

5029 AmeriGas Propane. One stop shop for all propane delivered.

7334 BJ Williamson Greenhouses.

Outdoors

8039 Vause Equipment Co. Farm equipment.
8208 Wilson Manufacturing. Farm trailers.
8204 Equipmax. Tobacco spray equipment.
8217 Granville Equipment. Tobacco and Hemp Machinery.
8301 De Cloet SRL. Tobacco machinery.
8510 Walters Air Assist Plant Release System. Plant release system.
8516 Mobilift of Burlington, N.C. Forklift sales and service.
8546 {& 227) Kelley Mfg. Co. Agricultural equipment.

GAP Meetings

Jan 6, 9 am, Wilson, N.C.

Jan 7, 9 am, Winston Salem, NC

Jan 8, 9 am, Rocky Mount, NC.

Jan 9, 8 am, Kinston, NC.

Jan 10, 9 am, Goldsboro, NC.

Jan 13, 9 am, Williamston, NC.

Jan 14, 9 am, Blackstone, VA.

Jan 14, 9 am, Greenville, NC.

Jan 15, 4 pm, South Hill, VA.

Jan 16, 8:30 am, Oxford, NC.

Jan 16, 4 pm, South Chatham, VA.

Jan 17, 9 am, Smithfield, NC...

Burley auctions in Malawi could be severely affected by a ban on exports to the United States because of its use of illegal labor. See below for further details. File photo courtesy Star Tobacco.

It was one of the worst burley crops in recent U.S. memory. "We had too much rain early, and it was hot and dry late, including the curing season," said Daniel Green, chief operating officer of Burley Stabilization Corporation. "And volume and quality were down." There was a lot of K color in the leaf. USDA had projected a nationwide crop of 100 million pounds. "But I think there was a lot of burley that never made it to the market. I am estimating 85 million pounds."

The burley market so far has been extremely sluggish, except for those few growers who managed to avoid the bad weather and produce good tobacco. "They

are com-manding good prices," said Green. FYI: The only burley state that got good weather was Pen-sylvania, he add-ed.

But there is hope for new sales opportuni-ties: tobacco that is grown in Mala-wi, the worlds leading exporter of burley, has been banned from the United States since for alleged illegal labor practices. Last year, the U.S. imported 6.8 million kilos from Malawi. If the Malawians can't overcome the ban, this year's imports may be near zero. No doubt some of those orders will now be filled in the United States.

Cuba plans to increase its small burley tobacco production and plant up to 25,000 acres in the near future, some of them this year, state media on the island stand out on Monday. The increase will take place primarily in the western province of Pinar del Río, which produces the majority of Cuba's other types.

Will China buy American tobacco this year or not? China trade is still a mystery, and solving it should be a top priority. "If we cannot quickly resolve the situation of escalating tariffs, China will continue to replace Virginia imports [and those of other tobacco states] with products from other countries that can enter at a lower

tariff rate," said Jewel H. Bronaugh, commissioner of the Virginia Department of Agri-culture in an interview with Virginia Business. "This will negate years of business nego-tiations and relationship build-ing with importers in China." Chinese customers are adapting to the new reality of essentially not being able to purchase from the U.S. and are forging relatio-nships with other producers.

The experiment with Connecticut broadleaf turned out reasonably well in Kentucky, says Bob Pearce, Kentucky Extension tobacco specialist. "It appears we planted 600 to 800 acres," Pearce says."Farmers seemed reasonably happy with the results. If there is a demand for this leaf next year, many of those who grew it in 2019 will seek to grow it again, and some new growers would like to get a chance."

DATES TO REMEMBER

The Southern Farm Show will take place February 5 to 7 at the North Carolina State Fair Ground in Raleigh. Watch for a special issue of TFN in about a week with more details about the Show, including an up-to-date exhibitor list.

GAP Meetings

Feb 4, 10:30 am, Springfield, TN

Feb 6, 10 am, Sutherlin, VA

Feb 7, 1:30 pm, Raleigh, NC (at Southern Farm Show)

Feb 10, 9 am, Calhoun, KY

Feb 11, 10 am, Dixon, KY

Feb 12, 10 am, Phenix, VA

Feb 24, 10 am, Kingsport, TN

Feb 25, 10 am, Hopkinsville, KY

Feb 26, 10 am, Owensboro, KY

Feb 27, 10 am, Lexington, KY

Mar 2, 6 pm, Owensboro, KY

Mar 3, 6 pm, Madison IN

Mar 4, 12:30 pm, Tifton GA

Mar 5, 10 am, Marion SC

Mar 5, 6 pm, Greeneville TN

Mar 10, 1 pm, Murray KY

Farm machinery for sale is assembled on the floor of Dorton Arena at the North Carolina State Fair Grounds in preparation for the Southern Farm Show in Raleigh on February 5, 6 and 7.

The Southern Farm Show begins next Wednesday, and as always there will be a vast array of new equipment for tobacco farmers. With the grim prospects for 2020, it is much to be questioned how much demand those farmers are going to come with. But prices will probably be good, and you can probably expect opportunities for favorable credit. So if you need some labor-reducing or quality-increasing equipment, this might be the year to make a good deal.

Details about the Show: It takes place in Raleigh on February 5, 6 and 7 at the North Carolina State Fair Grounds. Gates open at 9 a.m. and close at 4 p.m. Admission is free and there is no charge for parking. The main parking is located on Trinity Road (off Blue Ridge Rd. just north of the Fair Grounds). For more information, go to https://southernshows.com.

The annual meeting of the Tobacco Growers Association of N.C. will take place at the Southern Farm Show on February 7. It starts at 10 a.m. in the Holshouser Building and ends at lunch. GAP training will be available afterward.

SOUTHERN FARM SHOW EXHIBITS OF

SPECIAL INTEREST TO TOBACCO FARMERS

Jim Graham Bldg.

102 Brock Equipment Co.
222 Evans Mactavish Agricraft.
227 Kelley Mfg. Co. Agricultural equipment.
302 Hardee by EVH Manufacturing Co. Sprayers.
704 (also 8131) Agri Supply. Agricultural materials.
807 Mechanical Transplanter Company. Transplanters, seeding equipment for hemp. tobacco, and vegetables.
808 BulkTobac (Gas Fired Products). Curing equipment and controls.

Kerr Scott Bldg.

1002 TriEst Ag Group. Fumigation supplies.
1015 Yara North America. Fertility products.
1107 Flue Cured Tobacco Services. Curing controls.
1104 GoldLeaf Seed Co. Tobacco seed.
1120 BeltWide Inc. Transplant technology.
1115 Transplant Systems. Greenhouse systems.
1116 Cross Creek Seed. Tobacco seed.
1121 AAA Scale Co.
1201 Carolina Greenhouse & Soil Company.
1202 Reddick Equipment Company Inc. Manufacturer of spraying equip-ment.
1213 H&H Farm Machinery. "Building sprayers your way since 1978."
1302 Mid-Atlantic Irrigation Co.
1415 Spapperi (Italy). Setters and other tobacco mechanization.

Exposition Bldg.

3127 (& 8611) Benchmark Buildings & Irrigation. Transplanters/irrigation.
3135 Southern Container Corporation of Wilson. Bale sheets and packaging.
3308 Tobacco Growers Association of N.C.

3311 Flame Engineering. Weed control with flame.
3520 First Products Inc. Fertilizer boxes for cultivators and tool bars.
3605 MarCo Mfg. Tobacco machinery.
3714 Suretrol Manufacturing. Curing Controls.

Scott Tent

7025 Drexel Chemical Company. Sucker control chemicals.
7027 ABI Irrigation. Irrigation equipment.
7034 (&8012) Coastal AgroBusiness. A full-service agricultural solutions provider serving NC, SC, VA, ETN and NGA.
7302 Fairbanks Scale.
7322 Transplant Systems. A growing system company.

Tent 1

5029 AmeriGas Propane. One stop shop for all propane delivered.
7334 BJ Williamson Greenhouses.

Outdoors

8039 Vause Equipment Co. Farm equipment.
8208 Wilson Manufacturing. Farm trailers.
8204 Equipmax. Tobacco spray equipment.
8217 Granville Equipment. Tobacco and Hemp Machinery.
8301 De Cloet SRL. Tobacco machinery.
8510 Walters Air Assist Plant Release System. Plant release system.
8516 Mobilift of Burlington, N.C. Forklift sales and service.
8546 {& 227) Kelley Mfg. Co. Agricultural equipment.

IN OTHER TOBACCO NEWS...

New soil treatments for 2020--The nematicide PicClor60 offers all the benefits of chloropicrin and adds enhanced nematode control by combining it with 1,3-D. While it is new for tobacco this year, PicClor60 has been one of the most widely used soil fumigation products in high value crops like vegetables and strawberries since the loss of methyl bromide. For more information, contact the manufacturer at www.triestag.com or visit the TriEst booth at the Southern Farm Show.

Setting the chloropicrin record straight: Chloropicrin is sometimes described as having a soil sterilizing effect, but company representatives insist that is not true. "Chloropicrin improves soil microbiology by rebooting the microbial balance between beneficial and harmful organisms," says Drew Griffin, regional sales manager/Fumigants. "It does not sterilize the soil and it does not leave residue in the soil or plant."

A still relatively new nematicide performed well in 2019. Majestene is gentle to the environment, says Hal Blackmore, southeast territorial sales manager for the manufacturer Marrone Bio. In a 2019 North Caroline State test for rootknot nematode, Majestene out-yielded Velum Prime, especially at a rate of two gallons per acre in transplant water and one gallon more 21 to 28 days later. It also suppresses wireworms. No waiting period is required after application, and it can be used in a no-till program. For more information, call Hal Blackmore at 904-570-0041.

GAP Meetings in February and March

Feb 4, 10:30 am, Springfield, TN

Feb 6, 10 am, Sutherlin, VA

Feb 6, 6 pm, Lancaster, KY

Feb 7, 1:30 pm, Raleigh, NC (at Southern Farm Show)

Feb 10, 9 am, Calhoun, KY

Feb 11, 10 am, Dixon, KY

Feb 12, 10 am, Phenix, VA

Feb 17, 6 pm, Cadiz, KY

Feb 19, 1 pm, West Union, OH

Feb 19, 7 pm, Gallipolis, OH

Feb 24, 10 am, Kingsport, TN

Feb 25, 10 am, Hopkinsville, KY

Feb 26, 10 am, Owensboro, KY

Feb 27, 10 am, Lexington, KY

Feb 27, 5:30 pm, Central City, KY

Mar 2, 6 pm, Owensboro, KY

Mar 3, 6 pm, Madison IN

Mar 3, 12 pm, Russellville, KY

Mar 4, 12:30 pm, Tifton GA

Mar 5, 10 am, Marion SC

Mar 5, 6 pm, Greeneville TN

Mar 10, 1 pm, Murray KY

Visit us at booth 1104 at the Southern Farm Show.

Visit us at booth 1002 at the Southern Farm Show

Signing up--Lauren Walker, compliance and assessment coordinator for GAP Connections, helps farmers register for their annual training session in best agricultural practices. This session took place at the Southern Farm Show in Raleigh on February 7 right after the annual meeting of the Tobacco Grower Association of N.C. About 20 more sessions remain this year (see below for dates and locations).

For the first time in a while, you could find optimism in a group of farmers about the resumption of leaf sales to China, The meeting in question was the annual meeting of the Tobacco Growers Association of North Carolina (TGANC) in Raleigh on February 7. Much of the improved outlook was spurred by the news that American tobacco is included on the list of agricultural products in Phase 1 of the U.S.-China trade agreement. That doesn't guarantee any new sales but sets the stage for them.

China on his mind. A case in point--N.C. Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler told TGANC that he goes to bed thinking about China, dreams about China while he is sleeping and thinks about China when he wakes up. But those dreams may improve soon--he is guardedly optimistic about sales. now that we know that tobacco is eligible to be included in Phase I sales. "We think we will get China back on this market," he said.

To meet its $40 billion commitment in purchases of U.S. food, agricultural and seafood products China will need to increase purchases of many products, said Blake Brown, N.C. Extension agricultural economist. It may well choose to buy our flue-cured tobacco. Brown noted that despite the break in purchasing, the China Tobacco International (North America) office in Cary, N.C., near Raleigh, has never been closed.

We must do everything possible to restore trade with China, added Steve Griffin, president of TGANC. "We are a shrinking player in an increasingly globalized industry," he said. "The number of major cigarette manufacturers can be counted

on two hands. The companies are very motivated to find least-cost ingredients, even the most significant one--tobacco leaf it-self." There is too much tobacco being grown, said Griffin. "Worse, it is sold too cheap."

Farmers are not the only members of the tobacco community that are worried about China. Pieter Sikkel, chairman, president and c.e.o at Pyxus, parent company of Alliance One International, said in an announcement on February 10 that "While we are pleased that tobacco is included on the list of agricultural products in Phase 1 of the U.S.-China trade agreement, additional steps are needed to restart leaf exports from the United States to China." The coronavirus outbreak is also a concern, and Pyxus-Alliance One is closely monitoring the possible negative impact on leaf trade of the disease.

In other issues addressed at the TGANC meeting:

--The procurement cycle for leaf has become a growing problem for farmers, said Griffin. "In less than 30 days, a majority of growers need to begin seeding greenhouses for the new crop. Yet to date, only one tobacco contracting company has executed contracts. A second has

at least given the grower base an expectation of volumes and may sign contracts in the near future. But much of the procurement need remains unknown." Reform is strongly needed, he believes.

--A frightening prospect: Too many family farms are exiting the business. "Some [are] by choice and some due to circumstances," said Griffin. "One way or another, this trend needs our full attention. I call on the industry to help slow the erosion of demand for U.S. leaf by making a strong commitment to include more of it in the final product while at the same time protecting the price."

In other tobacco news:

How much tobacco will be grown this year? The first estimate of 2020 production was released by Universal Leaf on February 4.

Flue-Cured--The world total is estimated at 8,064 million green pounds, down two percent from the previous season. Brazil's crop is estimated at 1,212 million green pounds, down eight percent from last season, while the USA's crop is estimated at 300 million green pounds, up eight percent from last season. The PRC flue-cured crop is estimated at 3,842 million green pounds, equal to last season.
Burley--The world total is estimated down seven percent at 1,128 million green pounds. Brazil's burley crop is estimated at 125 million green pounds, down slightly from last year, while the USA crop is estimated at 81 million green pounds. The PRC burley crop is estimated at 15 million green pounds, down 40 percent from last season.
Oriental--The world total is up nearly six percent at 374 million green pounds.
Dark Air-Cured--The world total is 273 million green pounds, roughly the same as last year.

See our next issue in about 10 days for more news from the Southern Farm Show and the TGANC annual meeting.

GAP Meetings in February and March

Feb 10, 9 am, Calhoun, KY

Feb 11, 10 am, Dixon, KY

Feb 12, 10 am, Phenix, VA

Feb 17, 6 pm, Cadiz, KY

Feb 19, 1 pm, West Union, OH

Feb 19, 7 pm, Gallipolis, OH

Feb 24, 10 am, Kingsport, TN

Feb 25, 10 am, Hopkinsville, KY

Feb 26, 10 am, Owensboro, KY

Feb 27, 10 am, Lexington, KY

Feb 27, 5:30 pm, Central City, KY

Mar 2, 6 pm, Owensboro, KY

Mar 3, 6 pm, Madison IN

Mar 3, 12 pm, Russellville, KY

Mar 4, 12:30 pm, Tifton GA

Mar 5, 10 am, Marion SC

Mar 5, 6 pm, Greeneville TN

Mar 10, 1 pm, Murray KY

Mar 16, 6 pm, Lafayette, TN
Mar 25, 6 pm. Scottsville, KY
Mar 30, 6:30 pm. Owenton, KY

Bickers Editing Service, 903-9 Shellbrook Ct., Raleigh, NC 27609

A self-propelled sprayer attracted a lot of interest at the Granville Equipment display at the Southern Farm Show earlier this month. Shown here is Mike Smith (center, a farmer from Georgia), who is learning about the sprayer from (from left) Randy Watkins, Don Watkins and Stephanie Keith, all of the Granville staff. (Photo by the editor)

Looking back on the farm show: It seemed that attendance at the Southern Farm Show earlier this month was noticeably reduced from 2019. But exhibitors (some anyway) who sold mostly tobacco equipment told me that the turnout for them was good, especially on Friday. "We had plenty of people," said Randy Watkins at Granville Equipment Company. "And they showed better optimism than they did at the last show."

Among the popular implements at the Granville display were its multipass harvester and its self-propelled high clearance sprayer. "We sold a few sprayers, though not as many as we would have if the tobacco economy was stronger than what it is," said Watkins. Granville has some new hemp production equipment, and it--especially its Granville Flower Extractor system--attracted considerable interest from visitors to the exhibit.

Used equipment is selling at very low prices at farm sales, says J. Michael Moore, Georgia Extension tobacco specialist, and a little new equipment is moving. "A few curing barns have been purchased in Georgia and Florida," says Moore. "Some replace barns that burned down last season, while others have replaced old barns that were no longer in good condition."

Transplanting will begin soon: In Florida, some tobacco may be taken to the field as early as March 10, says Moore. But in Georgia, he hopes that farmers will delay transplanting until April 7 to reduce incidence of tomato spotted wilt virus. But the crop may not wait. "We have seeded greenhouses, and some plants have been clipped multiple times," says Moore. "But fields are wet and little field work has been done so far." Farmers are getting to the point that they need to know what the industry needs and what size contract they can expect.

AWARDS

The Tobacco Growers Assn. of N.C. conferred awards to several individuals at the Southern Farm Show. They were:

Outstanding Association Director--Randy Edwards, Johnston County,
Farm Family of the Year--Grissom Family Farms, Vance County.
Extension --Rick Bonanno, N.C. Director of Extension.
Randy Edwards
Distinguished Service--Beth Farrell, North Carolina Department of Agriculture.
Lifetime Century Member--Frank Grainger, Fair Products.

The Tobacco Farm Life Museum of Kenly, N.C., presented two awards during the Southern Farm Show:

The Excellence in Agriculture award went to Alice Scott, co-owner and executive secretary of Scott Farms, a sixth-generation family farm


Wayne Grissom accepting for Grissom family of Vance Co.

in Lucama, N.C., for her involvement in the promotion and continued growth of the agriculture community in North Carolina. The sponsor of this award was Southern Bank.

Innovative Young Farmer of the Year went to Michelle Pace Davis, who operates Pace Family Farms located in Clayton, N.C., received the. Davis has been instrumental in opening the Pace Family Farms as an agritourism location and in instituting creative solutions to prevent produce waste. The award sponsor Farm Credit Assns. of North Carolina.

APPOINTMENTS AND VACANCIES:

New director at Oxford: Chris Jernigan has been named superintendent of the Oxford (N.C.) Tobacco Research Station. Jernigan previously served as the tobacco supervisor and later as assistant superintendent at the Caswell/Lower Coastal Plains Research Stations in Kinston. More recently, Jernigan worked in the NCDA'S Agronomic Services Division as a regional agronomist and research coordinator. Two other staff members have been given new positions: Carl Watson has been named assistant superintendent and John Shotwell has been named research specialist in the tobacco program.

Tobacco specialist needed in Tennessee: The post of state Extension tobacco specialist in Tennessee is vacant since Eric Walker joined the staff of Burley Stabilization Corp. in Springfield, Tn. Walker had served as Extension state tobacco specialist for Tennessee since 2014. As a result of his departure, a search effort to fill the Extension position will begin shortly, and it is hoped that the position can be filled toward the end of 2020. The location of the new specialist's office has not been decided. The position will have responsibilities for some tobacco Extension work in Kentucky.

New director at Greeneville, Tn.: Justin L. McKinney has been appointed director of the University of Tennessee AgResearch and Education Center at Greeneville, Tennessee. McKinney was previously the director and financial manager of the Eastern Kentucky University farms...Rob Ellis, who had been the director of the Greeneville station as well as the Highland Rim station, has returned to working full time at Highland Rim. NOTE: Contrary to earlier announcements (see TFN, January II 2018), a small amount of tobacco research continues at the Greeneville station, especially burley variety research.

GAP TRAINING MEETINGS THRU MID MARCH

Feb 27, 5:30 pm, Central City, KY

Mar 2, 6 pm, Owensboro, KY

Mar 3, 6 pm, Madison IN

Mar 3, 12 pm, Russellville, KY

Mar 4, 12:30 pm, Tifton GA

Mar 5, 10 am, Marion SC

Mar 5, 6 pm, Greeneville TN

Mar 10, 1 pm, Murray KY

Mar 12, 9 am, Greensburg, KY

Mar 16, 6 pm, Lafayette, TN


A South Georgia farmer preps his land for planting. (File photo).

Setting kicks off: One flue-cured grower in Florida began setting plants Wednesday and another started today, says J. Michael Moore, Georgia Extension tobacco specialist. "They're happy with the quality of the plants and are looking forward to continuing to plant through the weekend and next week." In Georgia, soil conditions are improving with some growers applying Telone II now, he says. "Some transplanting will be starting in two weeks in Georgia."

Flue-cured contracting in North Carolina is not finished yet, and this is creating quite a quandary for growers who must hold back on seeding some greenhouses even though seeding is well under way. Most of the uncertainty seems to be coming from the export market. The two major domestic companies--Philip Morris USA and R.J. Reynolds--reportedly were contracting actively at the beginning of the year and may in fact have finished contracting by now. Their contracted acreage is believed to be slightly higher than 2019 . But there is no clear message from leaf dealers.

Much of N.C.'s crop was seeded at the end of February, which is normal, says Matthew Vann, N.C. Exten-sion tobacco specialist. "We've had a really good season so far. We might get some set out by the first week of April. That would be in the southeastern part of the state. Unless we get a cold snap or it gets really wet, we should have a good crop of plants to take to the field."

The search to cut costs: For Butch Glasscock, a flue-cured grower in Amelia Court House Va., west of Richmond, there is only one place he can cut costs in 2020. "That's labor. We are going to try to go with four workers this season instead of five," he says. "That's my plan anyway." Glascock harvests by hand, but mechanization isn't an option because of his scale of operation: He had 50 acres last year and hopes to plant at least that much this season.

End of an era for dark? The dark tobacco sector of the U.S. leaf industry is taking a hit as a result of declining smokeless tobacco sales. This development follows more than two decades of sales growth, said Will Snell, Kentucky Extension tobacco economist, in the Kentucky Agricultural Economic Situation and Outlook. How much has it fallen? USDA estimated that production of the three dark types grown in the U.S. fell nearly 18 percent from 2018 (85 million pounds) to 2019 (70 million pounds).

Profit margins in Kentucky continue to be squeezed by higher labor costs coupled with limited yield gains and stagnant leaf prices, resulting in continued concentration of growers, said Snell. Despite lower production, leaf prices are not expected to change much from last year's levels, given contract price levels and some curing quality issues for burley, he said. "Overall, Kentucky tobacco cash receipts will likely fall below $300 million for 2019, compared to averaging $356 million over the past five years." Lower tobacco production may move the sector to more balanced supply/demand levels this year, he said. "[That] may result in fairly stable contract volumes for the coming year," he said.


	Inman

A new tobacco specialist in South Carolina: Matt Inman has been named Clemson Extension tobacco specialist. He has served as Extension Associate in tobacco at N.C. State University for five years and earned a PhD there. He is stationed at the Pee Dee Research and Education Center at Florence. South Carolina has been without a state tobacco specialist since the passing of Dewitt Gooden in 2015.

OVERSEAS REPORT

13 percent shortfall in Zimbabwe: Flue-cured production in Zimbabwe was projected in an early February estimate to be down 13 percent from the record high production in 2019. This crop has suffered from extremely hot weather. "The earliest estimate of the crop is approximately 225 kilogrammes (about 500 million pounds)," Tobacco Industry and Marketing Board chairperson Patrick Devenish told the ZimEye news organization. "Although the irrigated crop is very good in quality, the dryland crop suffered the effects of drought and also the planting season began late because of the late onset of the rainy season. The irrigated crop is of very good quality and the dry land crop--not all of it but quite a lot of it--is suffering as a result of drought. It needs a bit of rain." The auction market had been expected to open in mid March but has been delayed because of the lateness of the crop.

GAP TRAINING MEETINGS THRU MID MARCH

Mar 16, 6 pm, Lafayette, TN

Mar 23, 9 am. Turbotville, PA

Mar 24, 9 am. New Holland, PA

Mar 24, 1 pm. New Holland, PAMar 25, 9 am. Quarryville, PA

Mar 25, 1 pm. Quarryville, PA

Mar 25, 6 pm. Scottsville, KY

Mar 26, 9 am. Quarryville, PA

Mar 26, 1 pm. Quarryville, PA

Mar 26, 6 pm. Sharpsburg, KY

Mar 27, 9 am. Mechanicsville, MD

Mar 27, 10 am. Lexington, KY

Mar 30, 6:30 pm. Owenton, KY

Mar 31, 6 pm. Glasgow, KY

Mar 31, 6 pm. Ben Hur, VA

Apr 1, 6 pm. Cynthiana, KY

HARVEST BEGINS IN THE DEEP SOUTH

A FIVE PERCENT SMALLER FLUE-CURED CROP?

WHERE YOU CAN AUCTION FLUE-CURED LEAF

A SURPRISE PROJECTION FROM USDA

MARKETING OFF TO SLOW START

ADDING UP THE DAMAGE FROM DORIAN ON TOBACCO

LEAF HARVEST ENDING IN INTENSE HEAT

PRICES WEAK AS MARKET WINDS DOWN

A MOST DIFFICULT GROWING SEASON

WHY YOU MUST GROW TOBACCO FOR LESS IN 2020

IS THERE ANY REALISTIC HOPE FOR INCREASED FOREIGN SALES?

WILL CHINA BUY ANY OF OUR LEAF IN 2020?

WHAT WILL BE ON DISPLAY AT THE SOUTHERN FARM SHOW

MARKETING SEASON NEARLY COMPLETE

Article 0

MARKET SLUMPS FOR U.S. BURLEY-- BUT MALAWI TROUBLES COULD HELP

A MACHINERY EXTRAVAGANZA IN A TIGHT YEAR FOR FARM INVESTMENTS

THERE IS OPTIMISM--BUT JUST A LITTLE--OVER SALES TO CHINA

A LOOK BACK AT THE SOUTHERN FARM SHOW

PLANTING BEGINS, SEEDING CONTINUES